Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-11-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112356 12074 485 1046 264 75 0 0
OW 2 906 482 1786 658 246 0 0
VODI 0 130 126 981 1226 846 24 0
ODI 0 13 20 424 1056 1451 108 0
CDI 0 1 5 136 1290 3935 794 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 335 9175 18477 23807
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111457 11286 383 667 191 2 0 0
OW 28 958 381 1511 921 394 0 0
VODI 1 113 111 921 1380 818 12 0
ODI 0 14 18 442 908 1355 130 0
CDI 0 1 8 162 874 3388 1115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 348 7276 17776 29382
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109077 11892 493 864 174 10 0 0
OW 4 670 372 1006 511 31 0 0
VODI 0 47 72 1114 1275 168 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 456 1489 707 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 1712 3156 525 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 316 6474 20519 31548
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108287 11622 481 781 92 25 0 0
OW 13 798 374 932 627 67 0 0
VODI 1 85 113 892 1006 362 10 0
ODI 0 4 5 417 1066 629 58 0
CDI 0 0 0 134 1312 1688 395 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 621 6420 19282 36131
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108279 11672 533 804 226 31 0 0
OW 18 738 333 941 517 60 0 0
VODI 4 92 97 902 1060 327 5 0
ODI 0 7 10 387 1072 696 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 128 1158 1679 485 1
VCDI 0 0 0 7 691 6398 19191 36130

Date: 2023-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106771 11692 514 885 78 21 0 0
OW 32 844 341 856 516 67 0 0
VODI 4 182 139 939 836 394 0 0
ODI 0 5 28 371 1100 728 103 0
CDI 0 0 0 132 1243 1446 399 6
VCDI 0 0 0 42 886 7290 22337 33516
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106773 11823 574 1013 143 28 0 0
OW 26 676 283 799 489 112 0 0
VODI 8 223 145 889 871 392 0 0
ODI 0 1 20 359 1181 711 93 0
CDI 0 0 0 125 1047 1463 397 6
VCDI 0 0 0 40 928 7240 22349 33516

Date: 2023-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105049 12319 487 482 86 0 0 0
OW 50 906 447 1001 138 30 1 0
VODI 7 38 76 1529 599 29 0 0
ODI 0 3 7 328 1634 284 0 6
CDI 0 0 0 101 769 2664 76 27
VCDI 0 0 0 43 318 7508 24142 33559
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105053 12091 577 953 144 1 0 0
OW 38 830 246 840 491 57 1 0
VODI 14 308 144 975 895 195 0 0
ODI 1 37 36 453 838 695 31 8
CDI 0 0 14 182 697 1930 544 44
VCDI 0 0 0 81 479 7637 23643 33540

Date: 2023-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104644 11160 635 763 95 0 0 0
OW 93 793 330 1152 314 27 1 0
VODI 6 146 122 1057 751 44 0 0
ODI 0 41 21 410 1204 253 11 0
CDI 0 3 1 137 912 1995 309 22
VCDI 0 0 0 22 354 6476 23376 37063
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104638 10733 579 1052 161 0 0 0
OW 88 858 275 911 642 57 1 0
VODI 17 390 150 718 861 247 6 0
ODI 0 137 92 575 806 614 64 1
CDI 0 24 13 227 693 1690 885 30
VCDI 0 1 0 58 467 6187 22741 37054

Date: 2023-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103390 10881 502 576 42 0 0 0
OW 174 843 409 1264 235 48 0 0
VODI 25 178 164 1215 751 141 1 0
ODI 0 52 21 552 902 319 0 0
CDI 0 20 8 149 930 1501 302 1
VCDI 0 0 0 51 582 5337 24544 38633
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103395 10248 466 953 101 7 0 0
OW 165 1198 308 910 381 102 0 0
VODI 29 370 219 972 943 206 6 0
ODI 0 118 103 591 808 470 33 0
CDI 0 37 7 310 736 1444 837 13
VCDI 0 3 1 71 473 5117 23971 38621


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