Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-10-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115096 15849 875 1525 633 0 0 0
OW 11 930 368 1609 1407 196 0 0
VODI 15 190 136 1232 1775 412 0 0
ODI 1 53 28 390 1218 789 0 0
CDI 0 11 17 292 1278 3258 733 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 591 6217 18587 19001
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115429 13806 609 1166 383 0 0 0
OW 2 1136 422 1531 1066 171 0 0
VODI 0 382 218 1345 2007 554 0 0
ODI 0 147 66 607 1724 485 2 0
CDI 0 78 66 358 1539 2178 175 0
VCDI 0 0 2 48 752 7879 20162 18248
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115318 13320 509 549 307 0 0 0
OW 0 1148 569 1285 479 23 0 0
VODI 0 100 156 1673 1434 84 0 0
ODI 0 9 12 431 2519 1161 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 74 1865 4327 116 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 328 7761 21542 17627
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113647 12162 548 1053 355 33 0 0
OW 3 989 467 1357 556 250 0 0
VODI 0 145 149 1323 1093 712 5 0
ODI 0 12 27 512 1310 1287 59 0
CDI 0 1 2 106 1693 4337 906 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 684 8434 18536 21984
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113641 12213 626 1264 412 114 0 0
OW 5 942 397 1152 481 190 0 0
VODI 4 140 142 1355 1175 627 0 0
ODI 0 13 27 476 1250 1087 33 0
CDI 0 1 1 107 1705 4213 692 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 668 8822 18781 21984

Date: 2023-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111827 11642 436 849 132 27 0 0
OW 2 910 463 1571 1059 195 0 0
VODI 0 93 110 1123 1288 795 9 0
ODI 0 14 16 423 1128 1362 131 0
CDI 0 0 6 124 967 3699 902 2
VCDI 0 0 0 12 269 8626 19661 24870
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111821 11715 562 1097 341 52 0 0
OW 5 818 343 1424 930 196 1 0
VODI 3 115 101 1053 1270 681 7 0
ODI 0 9 19 405 1024 1232 99 0
CDI 0 2 6 111 1040 3721 914 2
VCDI 0 0 0 12 238 8822 19682 24870

Date: 2023-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109824 12285 465 511 58 6 0 0
OW 5 590 383 1142 358 12 0 0
VODI 0 11 61 1661 1192 72 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 315 2200 953 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 1137 4526 247 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 69 6035 21095 29497
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109782 11778 501 970 301 14 0 0
OW 43 973 275 1313 877 280 0 0
VODI 4 113 101 772 1462 1056 0 0
ODI 0 21 25 380 926 1241 57 5
CDI 0 1 10 201 955 2838 957 130
VCDI 0 0 0 6 493 6175 20334 29373

Date: 2023-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109050 11407 587 617 114 24 0 0
OW 10 720 401 1109 474 51 0 0
VODI 0 91 84 1001 963 424 0 0
ODI 0 4 13 391 1140 805 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 1464 2422 377 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 274 6223 19122 35286
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109012 10724 562 725 118 22 0 0
OW 43 1215 338 1176 832 258 1 0
VODI 5 214 130 712 1408 1132 211 0
ODI 0 59 32 307 743 1023 401 0
CDI 0 10 23 254 791 1993 1160 25
VCDI 0 0 0 29 537 5521 17732 35265

Date: 2023-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108006 11381 494 796 63 32 0 0
OW 20 808 362 903 538 57 0 0
VODI 2 97 118 920 997 347 3 0
ODI 0 3 16 383 1155 588 85 0
CDI 0 0 0 137 1430 1248 318 7
VCDI 0 0 0 16 1152 6873 20595 34793
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107948 10500 504 996 254 28 0 0
OW 74 1400 232 737 701 116 5 0
VODI 6 360 224 869 1157 870 155 0
ODI 0 29 28 375 958 909 342 1
CDI 0 0 2 163 1184 1458 847 7
VCDI 0 0 0 15 1081 5764 19652 34792


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