Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-10-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125958 15374 547 711 75 1 0 0
OW 66 1608 403 1237 485 24 0 0
VODI 14 338 185 1004 1124 129 0 0
ODI 0 22 55 367 933 406 8 0
CDI 0 0 4 313 1085 1619 323 2
VCDI 0 0 0 14 371 4324 17318 18296
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122402 16944 667 825 53 0 0 0
OW 77 1329 366 1266 613 30 0 0
VODI 17 434 255 1051 1495 400 0 0
ODI 1 53 99 340 868 621 20 0
CDI 0 1 34 429 863 1815 203 0
VCDI 0 0 0 104 649 4624 17547 18248
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117189 19356 1151 1459 102 0 0 0
OW 32 1090 386 1457 259 8 0 0
VODI 0 148 108 1318 1000 47 0 0
ODI 2 5 22 341 1707 461 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 169 1103 3398 699 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 378 3731 16332 21283
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115606 16635 923 2106 630 4 0 0
OW 23 936 450 1746 912 86 0 0
VODI 11 184 109 1233 1396 171 0 0
ODI 2 58 39 401 1286 703 2 0
CDI 0 4 13 226 1052 3159 1104 1
VCDI 0 0 0 34 529 4983 17573 20413
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115596 16948 985 2259 724 6 0 0
OW 27 639 377 1608 823 40 0 0
VODI 17 170 131 1257 1468 244 0 0
ODI 2 53 28 357 1214 759 8 0
CDI 0 7 13 225 1042 3176 1266 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 534 4881 17405 20414

Date: 2023-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115533 14909 655 1117 349 79 0 0
OW 1 1052 443 1685 781 472 0 0
VODI 0 347 233 1383 1537 652 0 0
ODI 0 71 80 515 1267 764 0 0
CDI 0 5 34 463 1269 2996 163 0
VCDI 0 0 0 66 677 6421 19727 18997
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115507 15210 732 1336 429 100 0 0
OW 25 850 404 1567 742 405 0 0
VODI 2 256 195 1238 1640 642 0 0
ODI 0 60 78 547 1195 952 0 0
CDI 0 8 36 471 1152 2759 264 0
VCDI 0 0 0 70 722 6526 19626 18997

Date: 2023-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115150 13983 465 676 135 0 0 0
OW 0 1371 672 1326 279 1 0 0
VODI 0 151 105 2116 1366 77 0 0
ODI 0 11 6 406 3562 1245 0 0
CDI 0 1 3 64 1525 3992 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 307 7503 19875 18320
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115093 13804 513 1189 517 30 0 0
OW 54 1030 381 1297 774 408 0 0
VODI 3 398 231 1182 2021 960 0 0
ODI 0 139 75 514 1556 905 0 0
CDI 0 144 50 343 1463 1895 147 0
VCDI 0 2 1 77 843 8620 19764 18320

Date: 2023-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114314 13084 521 693 333 29 0 0
OW 1 1060 480 1260 614 170 0 0
VODI 0 112 103 1321 1418 425 3 0
ODI 0 14 26 424 1601 1427 21 0
CDI 0 1 0 80 1945 4987 300 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 313 8687 19266 19701
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114232 12665 469 794 634 267 13 0
OW 80 1157 322 909 787 704 56 0
VODI 3 336 239 1054 1579 1405 70 0
ODI 0 79 47 503 1327 1714 148 0
CDI 0 34 52 480 1274 2904 317 0
VCDI 0 0 1 47 623 8731 18986 19701

Date: 2023-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112356 12074 485 1046 264 75 0 0
OW 2 906 482 1786 658 246 0 0
VODI 0 130 126 981 1226 846 24 0
ODI 0 13 20 424 1056 1451 108 0
CDI 0 1 5 136 1290 3935 794 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 335 9175 18477 23807
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112294 11629 485 1254 528 365 0 0
OW 46 1134 364 1097 467 729 3 0
VODI 18 288 181 1009 1241 1743 272 0
ODI 0 49 45 440 863 1909 486 0
CDI 0 24 41 384 1028 2896 1206 0
VCDI 0 0 2 191 702 8086 17436 23808


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