Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-10-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 137729 13488 295 229 25 0 0 0
OW 18 1547 546 1107 136 20 0 0
VODI 0 104 170 1812 931 55 0 0
ODI 0 11 24 351 2503 1032 8 0
CDI 0 0 7 117 795 3598 1788 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 157 1032 11281 13827
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135183 14007 281 397 39 21 0 0
OW 22 2373 525 889 179 107 0 0
VODI 0 254 246 1532 1112 282 8 0
ODI 0 19 18 438 1523 1074 123 0
CDI 0 0 11 133 605 3895 1837 18
VCDI 0 0 0 14 69 885 14648 11976
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 133671 15370 306 379 54 8 0 0
OW 2 1353 657 925 66 13 0 0
VODI 0 77 164 1522 476 76 0 0
ODI 0 2 6 562 1088 597 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 114 1653 1979 175 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 172 7060 22966 3250
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132535 15162 370 568 124 11 0 0
OW 2 1246 365 1224 333 32 2 0
VODI 0 228 228 755 940 102 6 0
ODI 0 28 57 499 678 594 7 0
CDI 0 10 17 353 1098 2061 492 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 380 5368 18981 9861
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132518 15194 418 699 148 9 0 0
OW 19 1194 317 1107 388 30 1 0
VODI 0 248 239 771 903 134 7 0
ODI 0 29 45 475 653 634 6 0
CDI 0 9 18 353 1090 2024 587 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 371 5337 18887 9861

Date: 2023-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129054 16600 368 717 231 2 0 0
OW 2 1501 446 1278 451 59 1 0
VODI 0 346 194 816 1018 335 18 0
ODI 0 54 97 437 605 571 76 0
CDI 0 5 30 423 1000 1393 653 3
VCDI 0 0 0 26 279 4005 16748 14901
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129034 16456 395 789 269 7 0 0
OW 22 1601 419 1241 489 65 0 0
VODI 0 401 204 779 953 357 21 0
ODI 0 40 96 468 592 580 81 0
CDI 0 8 21 391 947 1441 657 8
VCDI 0 0 0 29 334 3915 16737 14896

Date: 2023-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127781 16735 471 512 104 1 0 0
OW 51 1052 603 1222 125 4 0 0
VODI 1 6 61 1686 629 13 10 0
ODI 0 0 9 314 1474 100 58 2
CDI 0 0 0 121 1297 2433 391 81
VCDI 0 0 0 5 101 3066 15815 18409
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127723 15788 443 706 174 4 0 0
OW 106 1623 432 1346 668 30 0 0
VODI 4 342 164 967 1181 539 21 0
ODI 0 39 68 410 560 770 139 0
CDI 0 1 37 389 721 975 947 31
VCDI 0 0 0 42 426 3299 15167 18461

Date: 2023-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125104 17630 619 819 20 1 0 0
OW 25 1065 374 1543 361 1 0 0
VODI 11 74 89 1155 1108 40 0 0
ODI 0 10 23 279 1302 231 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 174 1202 1877 224 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 145 3113 15582 20538
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125055 16419 458 728 66 1 0 0
OW 73 1891 407 1410 469 37 0 0
VODI 12 366 135 1150 1581 397 14 0
ODI 0 78 51 288 926 1009 121 0
CDI 0 26 55 332 712 1177 799 0
VCDI 0 0 0 64 384 2642 14872 20538

Date: 2023-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125958 15374 547 711 75 1 0 0
OW 66 1608 403 1237 485 24 0 0
VODI 14 338 185 1004 1124 129 0 0
ODI 0 22 55 367 933 406 8 0
CDI 0 0 4 313 1085 1619 323 2
VCDI 0 0 0 14 371 4324 17318 18296
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125900 13940 362 648 296 15 0 0
OW 128 2403 419 889 549 109 0 0
VODI 10 761 231 1146 1336 594 23 0
ODI 0 175 71 329 803 904 155 0
CDI 0 63 110 507 554 1307 686 1
VCDI 0 0 1 127 535 3574 16785 18297


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