Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-09-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 140340 11920 122 100 8 0 0 0
OW 42 3263 671 677 79 5 0 0
VODI 1 267 382 3899 1092 121 1 0
ODI 0 0 6 631 8709 2513 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 87 1491 8930 2006 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 3399 3940 14
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 140571 11462 92 57 1 0 0 0
OW 35 3373 635 831 18 1 0 0
VODI 1 314 419 3733 1093 113 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 927 6168 3614 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 190 1324 8777 2185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 2636 5898 201
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 140197 12866 133 65 0 0 0 0
OW 29 2475 821 584 0 1 0 0
VODI 3 53 242 3569 610 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 569 5350 916 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 2017 11015 600 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 6 4424 8171 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139025 13557 181 88 1 0 0 0
OW 45 2288 788 909 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 95 266 2765 1159 27 1 0
ODI 0 1 0 561 4451 1156 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 1747 10735 2526 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 3778 8492 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139023 13761 205 115 1 0 0 0
OW 47 2094 779 902 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 86 251 2770 1358 33 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 532 4266 1435 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 1726 9882 2585 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 4 4346 8421 0

Date: 2023-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139687 12586 211 102 0 0 0 0
OW 43 2125 661 1129 90 31 0 0
VODI 0 169 281 2107 1354 214 84 0
ODI 0 0 2 668 3502 1052 195 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 1132 8729 3572 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 0 3040 11843 67
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139692 12748 238 162 0 0 0 0
OW 38 1971 627 1072 87 12 0 0
VODI 0 159 287 2123 1508 226 86 0
ODI 0 2 3 631 3256 1224 298 0
CDI 0 0 0 84 1227 8440 3204 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3164 12106 63

Date: 2023-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 137024 14927 347 286 2 0 0 0
OW 7 1303 793 889 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 58 2504 665 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 202 4045 174 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 796 5554 624 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3686 18993 1779
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 137010 14306 390 448 43 0 0 0
OW 21 1634 505 1332 435 6 0 0
VODI 0 303 294 1557 1604 390 2 0
ODI 0 7 9 529 2725 1594 111 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 723 4733 5079 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 2693 14427 1779

Date: 2023-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 137443 14224 312 210 4 0 0 0
OW 9 1541 700 901 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 69 180 2210 717 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 14 488 3300 575 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 77 1055 3640 2319 136
VCDI 0 0 0 1 219 2079 16311 5963
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 137440 13556 357 359 22 0 0 0
OW 12 1885 524 1258 283 5 0 0
VODI 0 389 309 1718 1614 104 5 0
ODI 0 5 16 535 2672 1540 91 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 725 3778 5181 57
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 869 13366 6042

Date: 2023-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 137729 13488 295 229 25 0 0 0
OW 18 1547 546 1107 136 20 0 0
VODI 0 104 170 1812 931 55 0 0
ODI 0 11 24 351 2503 1032 8 0
CDI 0 0 7 117 795 3598 1788 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 157 1032 11281 13827
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 137722 12834 362 496 95 0 0 0
OW 25 1854 326 1074 450 31 0 0
VODI 0 459 329 1441 1157 697 6 0
ODI 0 3 25 544 1631 1479 319 8
CDI 0 0 0 61 1006 2694 5184 745
VCDI 0 0 0 0 208 836 7568 13074


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