Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-09-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139554 10789 40 16 0 0 0 0
OW 272 3863 679 481 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 450 478 4149 675 6 0 0
ODI 0 14 32 1762 7648 2262 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 130 2865 13131 1490 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 50 3256 645 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139235 11036 39 11 1 0 0 0
OW 281 4053 580 505 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 640 533 3965 811 3 0 0
ODI 0 37 39 1409 8990 1012 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 150 3080 10886 888 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 27 4592 1921 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139286 12921 122 89 1 0 0 0
OW 12 3091 902 710 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 76 207 4564 1083 39 0 0
ODI 0 15 1 512 9972 1293 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 8 856 11979 1025 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 8 3812 2131 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139769 12438 94 199 8 0 0 0
OW 45 3156 687 723 103 0 0 0
VODI 0 216 381 3960 1164 112 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 713 9181 2190 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 1258 8887 2425 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 4031 2898 5
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139764 12516 129 225 10 0 0 0
OW 50 3055 650 769 122 2 0 0
VODI 0 239 385 3903 1179 112 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 702 9081 2290 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 1310 8722 2407 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 4094 2905 5

Date: 2023-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 141253 11048 58 47 1 0 0 0
OW 35 3320 706 696 44 0 0 0
VODI 2 323 445 3722 1076 110 0 0
ODI 0 1 12 825 7501 3138 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 123 1282 8765 2113 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 2902 5132 15
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 141255 11137 92 61 1 0 0 0
OW 33 3171 692 804 65 1 0 0
VODI 2 384 435 3661 1074 112 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 778 7375 3393 135 0
CDI 0 0 0 109 1376 8402 2147 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 3007 4999 15

Date: 2023-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 140066 13154 51 128 0 0 0 0
OW 22 2345 964 534 5 0 0 0
VODI 3 26 87 3970 475 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 343 6523 239 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 1207 12631 237 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 2 3120 8496 91
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 140059 11769 76 169 0 0 0 0
OW 30 3290 635 915 88 0 0 0
VODI 2 455 383 3268 1427 109 0 0
ODI 0 11 8 505 5319 4200 134 0
CDI 0 0 0 125 1373 9154 2070 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 5 2536 6532 91

Date: 2023-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 140012 12833 154 50 0 0 0 0
OW 42 2437 836 705 4 0 0 0
VODI 1 81 247 3299 734 11 1 0
ODI 0 1 3 600 5137 822 10 0
CDI 0 0 1 31 2201 10945 1409 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 10 4637 7488 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 140012 11358 111 64 0 0 0 0
OW 43 3396 668 925 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 585 452 2975 1576 62 0 0
ODI 0 12 9 626 4968 3469 59 0
CDI 0 1 1 94 1491 9392 2980 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 3 3492 5869 0

Date: 2023-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139608 12843 159 126 2 0 0 0
OW 46 2249 693 995 97 6 0 0
VODI 0 126 284 2420 1181 214 6 0
ODI 0 0 1 652 3876 1214 53 0
CDI 0 0 1 49 1398 9790 2871 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 2848 10588 342
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139615 11465 128 183 0 0 0 0
OW 39 3020 581 1175 188 5 0 0
VODI 0 696 392 2044 1838 306 8 0
ODI 0 37 35 632 3221 2184 162 0
CDI 0 0 2 208 1309 9873 5797 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 1704 7551 342


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