Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-12-04
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-11-28:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
74763 |
28146 |
2998 |
242 |
47 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1135 |
2046 |
1050 |
208 |
168 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
72 |
1693 |
1752 |
830 |
675 |
210 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
301 |
1053 |
872 |
768 |
538 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
187 |
578 |
552 |
1021 |
2157 |
10 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
174 |
444 |
257 |
1114 |
18723 |
14048 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-12-02:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
74672 |
28650 |
4118 |
267 |
41 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
751 |
2447 |
1165 |
288 |
134 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
135 |
1179 |
1244 |
941 |
860 |
29 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
112 |
358 |
550 |
631 |
878 |
276 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
28 |
161 |
424 |
444 |
1606 |
2695 |
125 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
216 |
804 |
445 |
1102 |
16508 |
14549 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-12-04:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
73399 |
29489 |
2491 |
353 |
48 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
818 |
1420 |
1134 |
347 |
140 |
46 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
75 |
620 |
1160 |
845 |
844 |
341 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
11 |
134 |
647 |
751 |
984 |
535 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
3 |
88 |
567 |
781 |
1849 |
2677 |
5 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
14 |
814 |
736 |
3176 |
19154 |
12323 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
73399 |
29411 |
2547 |
401 |
48 |
35 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
897 |
1432 |
1191 |
376 |
188 |
49 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
75 |
531 |
1085 |
841 |
885 |
351 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
12 |
154 |
600 |
758 |
864 |
496 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
86 |
601 |
758 |
1887 |
2825 |
8 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
17 |
797 |
727 |
3159 |
19032 |
12320 |
|
Date: 2025-12-08:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
71297 |
27606 |
4158 |
357 |
74 |
51 |
5 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
812 |
1848 |
555 |
151 |
217 |
66 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
62 |
1129 |
720 |
452 |
486 |
275 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
2 |
374 |
603 |
611 |
788 |
457 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
196 |
404 |
705 |
1359 |
3159 |
40 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
105 |
188 |
288 |
779 |
18370 |
20094 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
71297 |
27378 |
3766 |
311 |
66 |
48 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1018 |
2044 |
508 |
127 |
206 |
54 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
86 |
1268 |
871 |
506 |
517 |
249 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
448 |
610 |
674 |
1020 |
560 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
191 |
347 |
629 |
1265 |
3638 |
36 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
93 |
180 |
279 |
624 |
17829 |
20099 |
|
Date: 2025-12-10:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
71040 |
28048 |
3824 |
523 |
64 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
602 |
1642 |
805 |
139 |
38 |
3 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
171 |
766 |
1223 |
418 |
201 |
53 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
186 |
645 |
608 |
560 |
221 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
71 |
517 |
734 |
1723 |
2943 |
2 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
208 |
300 |
2077 |
25221 |
13247 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
71027 |
26827 |
2697 |
468 |
62 |
24 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
13 |
1269 |
1649 |
382 |
151 |
77 |
23 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
682 |
1355 |
1010 |
348 |
216 |
184 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
43 |
549 |
952 |
547 |
613 |
383 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
220 |
845 |
797 |
1612 |
2449 |
10 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
24 |
264 |
358 |
2073 |
25402 |
13239 |
|
Date: 2025-12-12:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
...observations not yet available
|
...observations not yet available
|
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