Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-11-27
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-11-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
78540 |
27440 |
2894 |
912 |
200 |
72 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
2396 |
1431 |
941 |
314 |
210 |
3 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
657 |
1035 |
1178 |
860 |
566 |
64 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
1 |
241 |
586 |
611 |
915 |
222 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
108 |
258 |
463 |
1803 |
1521 |
13 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
206 |
255 |
2198 |
17252 |
12475 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-11-25:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
75765 |
29281 |
2144 |
584 |
57 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1484 |
1560 |
1123 |
248 |
71 |
56 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
420 |
1512 |
1939 |
875 |
367 |
182 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
34 |
242 |
733 |
801 |
645 |
276 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
18 |
184 |
375 |
666 |
1141 |
2004 |
11 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
197 |
187 |
987 |
17242 |
15422 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-11-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
74376 |
29010 |
2531 |
291 |
116 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1299 |
1564 |
978 |
398 |
291 |
3 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
86 |
1780 |
1439 |
1226 |
640 |
137 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
1 |
337 |
774 |
1114 |
836 |
496 |
6 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
231 |
335 |
430 |
1474 |
2132 |
17 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
89 |
164 |
175 |
1059 |
18864 |
14130 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
74376 |
28957 |
2537 |
287 |
133 |
26 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1359 |
1570 |
997 |
359 |
267 |
5 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
79 |
1736 |
1455 |
1282 |
632 |
124 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
1 |
348 |
714 |
1065 |
866 |
498 |
6 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
241 |
369 |
438 |
1555 |
2154 |
16 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
100 |
159 |
182 |
969 |
18851 |
14131 |
|
Date: 2025-12-01:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
75399 |
28917 |
3644 |
308 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
973 |
3026 |
1244 |
257 |
71 |
3 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
574 |
1298 |
1245 |
685 |
330 |
59 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
37 |
360 |
523 |
679 |
465 |
419 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
377 |
404 |
592 |
961 |
2918 |
45 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
343 |
679 |
518 |
430 |
15807 |
15243 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
75399 |
28294 |
2935 |
256 |
15 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1235 |
2097 |
669 |
203 |
134 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
459 |
1718 |
1024 |
630 |
504 |
91 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
272 |
967 |
890 |
523 |
345 |
470 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
226 |
502 |
585 |
614 |
726 |
2510 |
19 |
| VCDI |
0 |
15 |
829 |
979 |
755 |
541 |
16131 |
15269 |
|
Date: 2025-12-03:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
73678 |
28870 |
3733 |
422 |
50 |
51 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
801 |
1782 |
1257 |
327 |
161 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
111 |
680 |
1392 |
1089 |
893 |
24 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
51 |
180 |
453 |
991 |
1069 |
229 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
33 |
125 |
336 |
814 |
2012 |
2080 |
25 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
16 |
831 |
875 |
2226 |
17981 |
13196 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
73678 |
28516 |
2960 |
317 |
42 |
30 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
840 |
1614 |
810 |
209 |
284 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
222 |
954 |
1151 |
763 |
653 |
38 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
124 |
398 |
697 |
1028 |
927 |
288 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
107 |
433 |
892 |
1150 |
2073 |
1767 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
57 |
157 |
824 |
954 |
2445 |
18221 |
13221 |
|
Date: 2025-12-05:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
72711 |
28280 |
3022 |
416 |
70 |
40 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
747 |
1858 |
911 |
410 |
116 |
7 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
68 |
610 |
933 |
936 |
706 |
272 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
1 |
198 |
421 |
916 |
1106 |
496 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
84 |
261 |
1041 |
2535 |
2758 |
2 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
448 |
854 |
3898 |
19449 |
12263 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
72711 |
27223 |
2339 |
372 |
110 |
61 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1532 |
1780 |
525 |
277 |
276 |
121 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
304 |
1104 |
957 |
712 |
752 |
279 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
37 |
315 |
557 |
781 |
890 |
730 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
172 |
376 |
1145 |
1813 |
2249 |
1 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
62 |
603 |
1202 |
4609 |
19600 |
12264 |
|
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