Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-10-23
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-10-17:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
101306 |
24253 |
4177 |
844 |
408 |
95 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
315 |
836 |
610 |
386 |
233 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
12 |
245 |
356 |
565 |
680 |
34 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
72 |
184 |
315 |
789 |
159 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
23 |
149 |
184 |
1039 |
1325 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
16 |
56 |
846 |
8675 |
9653 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-10-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
100475 |
23383 |
3843 |
813 |
246 |
104 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
207 |
527 |
690 |
366 |
380 |
11 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
31 |
369 |
400 |
666 |
675 |
122 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
46 |
109 |
347 |
801 |
271 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
19 |
67 |
263 |
1718 |
2193 |
9 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
96 |
151 |
421 |
8544 |
10480 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-10-23:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
98149 |
25274 |
3218 |
1170 |
397 |
77 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
189 |
412 |
695 |
373 |
429 |
28 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
34 |
393 |
459 |
503 |
900 |
101 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
52 |
196 |
382 |
502 |
221 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
29 |
287 |
643 |
717 |
1729 |
2 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
148 |
559 |
452 |
10193 |
9924 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
98149 |
25401 |
3292 |
1187 |
375 |
105 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
79 |
365 |
688 |
389 |
298 |
15 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
17 |
319 |
441 |
516 |
897 |
104 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
106 |
243 |
371 |
596 |
225 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
23 |
247 |
660 |
740 |
1923 |
7 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
149 |
546 |
441 |
10005 |
9919 |
|
Date: 2025-10-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
98790 |
22564 |
4082 |
827 |
250 |
150 |
56 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
158 |
338 |
587 |
309 |
280 |
155 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
30 |
467 |
422 |
400 |
548 |
480 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
103 |
136 |
137 |
839 |
964 |
19 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
40 |
115 |
137 |
247 |
1469 |
61 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
82 |
164 |
286 |
12492 |
10660 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
98790 |
22656 |
4007 |
905 |
342 |
316 |
89 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
78 |
401 |
522 |
246 |
278 |
188 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
18 |
476 |
346 |
323 |
407 |
512 |
1 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
112 |
194 |
179 |
410 |
671 |
24 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
34 |
105 |
144 |
569 |
2018 |
54 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
97 |
163 |
370 |
12138 |
10661 |
|
Date: 2025-10-29:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
96256 |
24520 |
3952 |
1243 |
175 |
48 |
10 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
131 |
319 |
754 |
288 |
116 |
57 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
37 |
235 |
560 |
487 |
304 |
326 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
199 |
180 |
436 |
642 |
566 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
22 |
94 |
137 |
426 |
1313 |
3 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
23 |
331 |
296 |
510 |
12622 |
11226 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
96256 |
24599 |
3966 |
1215 |
254 |
71 |
5 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
74 |
303 |
755 |
273 |
138 |
48 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
15 |
317 |
553 |
463 |
357 |
352 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
158 |
192 |
322 |
424 |
634 |
4 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
6 |
118 |
228 |
670 |
1705 |
17 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
329 |
279 |
386 |
12150 |
11208 |
|
Date: 2025-10-31:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
94561 |
25981 |
4034 |
944 |
114 |
94 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
51 |
808 |
732 |
138 |
157 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
7 |
276 |
755 |
324 |
371 |
49 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
133 |
379 |
246 |
387 |
276 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
183 |
191 |
198 |
540 |
1209 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
14 |
83 |
377 |
1149 |
12622 |
11457 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
94561 |
25738 |
3942 |
1055 |
106 |
81 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
226 |
623 |
646 |
137 |
255 |
9 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
54 |
369 |
664 |
262 |
362 |
158 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
17 |
284 |
367 |
223 |
373 |
415 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
4 |
230 |
285 |
289 |
582 |
1445 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
67 |
380 |
1045 |
12130 |
11457 |
|
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