Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-10-16
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-10-10:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
104819 |
26099 |
3548 |
673 |
38 |
12 |
6 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
700 |
500 |
344 |
101 |
20 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
258 |
215 |
223 |
161 |
98 |
16 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
27 |
328 |
241 |
135 |
114 |
119 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
383 |
423 |
411 |
1260 |
1436 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
290 |
140 |
669 |
8022 |
7013 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-10-14:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109386 |
19660 |
4073 |
393 |
69 |
22 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
127 |
128 |
849 |
506 |
225 |
116 |
7 |
0 |
| VODI |
148 |
5 |
214 |
230 |
294 |
310 |
51 |
0 |
| ODI |
55 |
0 |
65 |
159 |
254 |
369 |
173 |
0 |
| CDI |
4 |
0 |
55 |
64 |
229 |
566 |
1512 |
1 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
6 |
1 |
42 |
458 |
9287 |
8731 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-10-16:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
102315 |
24131 |
4112 |
858 |
449 |
80 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
276 |
765 |
740 |
261 |
233 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
207 |
415 |
475 |
628 |
8 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
78 |
204 |
281 |
647 |
94 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
92 |
179 |
1313 |
1232 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
34 |
682 |
8526 |
9520 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
102315 |
24177 |
4116 |
1003 |
472 |
86 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
213 |
721 |
643 |
266 |
213 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
17 |
236 |
365 |
448 |
667 |
8 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
88 |
180 |
265 |
595 |
104 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
119 |
196 |
1366 |
1262 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
32 |
656 |
8486 |
9520 |
|
Date: 2025-10-20:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
101752 |
22066 |
3865 |
964 |
311 |
66 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
249 |
575 |
704 |
514 |
211 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
89 |
307 |
354 |
782 |
620 |
76 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
67 |
71 |
452 |
812 |
485 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
20 |
88 |
368 |
1804 |
2215 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
68 |
209 |
483 |
9923 |
8274 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
101752 |
22009 |
3532 |
945 |
547 |
184 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
249 |
751 |
416 |
464 |
292 |
52 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
146 |
454 |
583 |
608 |
548 |
245 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
82 |
154 |
327 |
837 |
486 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
15 |
74 |
422 |
1159 |
1435 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
77 |
268 |
976 |
10481 |
8274 |
|
Date: 2025-10-22:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
99209 |
24947 |
3319 |
860 |
233 |
70 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
203 |
615 |
588 |
376 |
464 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
28 |
355 |
372 |
525 |
940 |
34 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
39 |
93 |
219 |
885 |
161 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
14 |
53 |
142 |
1744 |
1929 |
20 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
84 |
138 |
613 |
8827 |
10744 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
99209 |
24741 |
2837 |
946 |
333 |
302 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
361 |
847 |
316 |
274 |
532 |
3 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
76 |
525 |
493 |
367 |
922 |
62 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
114 |
153 |
332 |
861 |
294 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
19 |
64 |
180 |
1330 |
1400 |
22 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
78 |
147 |
769 |
9192 |
10742 |
|
Date: 2025-10-24:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
99499 |
23407 |
3447 |
902 |
356 |
325 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
197 |
592 |
436 |
268 |
663 |
8 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
36 |
423 |
303 |
217 |
1277 |
52 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
56 |
78 |
122 |
964 |
180 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
28 |
31 |
105 |
1408 |
1353 |
5 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
23 |
119 |
835 |
11491 |
9632 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
99499 |
23315 |
3188 |
967 |
416 |
498 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
263 |
725 |
246 |
194 |
632 |
35 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
62 |
415 |
386 |
265 |
1129 |
112 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
195 |
133 |
137 |
1223 |
289 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
28 |
23 |
63 |
966 |
1734 |
38 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
112 |
1024 |
10914 |
9599 |
|
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