Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2025-10-02

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108371 21058 4753 756 57 16 0 0
OW 0 83 821 439 238 157 7 0
VODI 0 0 139 370 314 393 92 0
ODI 0 0 7 114 330 522 512 2
CDI 0 0 0 34 166 1079 2344 9
VCDI 0 0 0 6 26 186 9795 5648
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109315 19263 4651 837 140 7 0 0
OW 0 85 317 729 386 53 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 282 706 228 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 74 304 542 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 301 1592 1566 11
VCDI 0 0 0 20 93 530 10851 5832
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109664 19219 4681 640 49 10 0 0
OW 0 34 496 446 324 106 1 0
VODI 0 0 139 248 344 344 87 0
ODI 0 0 33 100 120 220 268 0
CDI 0 0 11 117 218 369 1422 3
VCDI 0 0 0 55 178 567 10261 8070
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109664 19225 4649 656 64 9 0 0
OW 0 28 519 442 322 102 1 0
VODI 0 0 146 242 334 365 91 0
ODI 0 0 36 103 127 224 296 0
CDI 0 0 10 113 252 377 1391 0
VCDI 0 0 0 50 134 539 10260 8073

Date: 2025-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110634 19516 4046 340 29 4 0 0
OW 0 279 1149 364 116 27 1 0
VODI 0 0 167 262 258 197 19 0
ODI 0 0 22 123 194 386 43 0
CDI 0 0 8 85 225 1545 1190 24
VCDI 0 0 0 59 206 784 8273 8269
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110634 19357 3827 312 25 1 0 0
OW 0 386 772 216 106 39 0 0
VODI 0 52 486 260 194 210 14 0
ODI 0 0 203 162 175 238 67 0
CDI 0 0 104 227 335 1487 740 14
VCDI 0 0 0 56 193 968 8705 8279

Date: 2025-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105870 24900 3974 480 18 17 0 0
OW 0 164 1084 442 76 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 285 355 139 55 0 0
ODI 0 0 92 355 114 127 12 0
CDI 0 0 7 343 441 1022 1283 0
VCDI 0 0 0 99 177 998 8092 7810
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105870 24568 3581 423 16 13 0 0
OW 0 465 679 289 70 27 0 0
VODI 0 31 641 359 132 64 0 0
ODI 0 0 369 277 75 102 19 0
CDI 0 0 172 640 467 728 982 11
VCDI 0 0 0 86 205 1298 8386 7799

Date: 2025-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104819 26099 3548 673 38 12 6 0
OW 0 700 500 344 101 20 1 0
VODI 0 258 215 223 161 98 16 0
ODI 0 27 328 241 135 114 119 0
CDI 0 0 383 423 411 1260 1436 0
VCDI 0 0 1 290 140 669 8022 7013
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104819 25773 3386 627 30 7 5 0
OW 0 822 416 273 92 31 8 0
VODI 0 410 385 271 124 69 32 0
ODI 0 79 335 201 103 118 62 0
CDI 0 0 453 494 459 1062 828 0
VCDI 0 0 0 328 178 886 8665 7013


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