Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-10-02
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-09-26:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
108371 |
21058 |
4753 |
756 |
57 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
83 |
821 |
439 |
238 |
157 |
7 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
139 |
370 |
314 |
393 |
92 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
7 |
114 |
330 |
522 |
512 |
2 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
34 |
166 |
1079 |
2344 |
9 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
26 |
186 |
9795 |
5648 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-09-30:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109315 |
19263 |
4651 |
837 |
140 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
85 |
317 |
729 |
386 |
53 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
282 |
706 |
228 |
7 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
74 |
304 |
542 |
66 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
51 |
301 |
1592 |
1566 |
11 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
20 |
93 |
530 |
10851 |
5832 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-10-02:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109664 |
19219 |
4681 |
640 |
49 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
34 |
496 |
446 |
324 |
106 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
139 |
248 |
344 |
344 |
87 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
33 |
100 |
120 |
220 |
268 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
11 |
117 |
218 |
369 |
1422 |
3 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
55 |
178 |
567 |
10261 |
8070 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109664 |
19225 |
4649 |
656 |
64 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
28 |
519 |
442 |
322 |
102 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
146 |
242 |
334 |
365 |
91 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
36 |
103 |
127 |
224 |
296 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
10 |
113 |
252 |
377 |
1391 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
50 |
134 |
539 |
10260 |
8073 |
|
Date: 2025-10-06:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
110634 |
19516 |
4046 |
340 |
29 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
279 |
1149 |
364 |
116 |
27 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
167 |
262 |
258 |
197 |
19 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
22 |
123 |
194 |
386 |
43 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
8 |
85 |
225 |
1545 |
1190 |
24 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
59 |
206 |
784 |
8273 |
8269 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
110634 |
19357 |
3827 |
312 |
25 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
386 |
772 |
216 |
106 |
39 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
52 |
486 |
260 |
194 |
210 |
14 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
203 |
162 |
175 |
238 |
67 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
104 |
227 |
335 |
1487 |
740 |
14 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
56 |
193 |
968 |
8705 |
8279 |
|
Date: 2025-10-08:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
105870 |
24900 |
3974 |
480 |
18 |
17 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
164 |
1084 |
442 |
76 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
285 |
355 |
139 |
55 |
0 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
92 |
355 |
114 |
127 |
12 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
7 |
343 |
441 |
1022 |
1283 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
99 |
177 |
998 |
8092 |
7810 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
105870 |
24568 |
3581 |
423 |
16 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
465 |
679 |
289 |
70 |
27 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
31 |
641 |
359 |
132 |
64 |
0 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
369 |
277 |
75 |
102 |
19 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
172 |
640 |
467 |
728 |
982 |
11 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
86 |
205 |
1298 |
8386 |
7799 |
|
Date: 2025-10-10:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
104819 |
26099 |
3548 |
673 |
38 |
12 |
6 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
700 |
500 |
344 |
101 |
20 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
258 |
215 |
223 |
161 |
98 |
16 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
27 |
328 |
241 |
135 |
114 |
119 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
383 |
423 |
411 |
1260 |
1436 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
290 |
140 |
669 |
8022 |
7013 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
104819 |
25773 |
3386 |
627 |
30 |
7 |
5 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
822 |
416 |
273 |
92 |
31 |
8 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
410 |
385 |
271 |
124 |
69 |
32 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
79 |
335 |
201 |
103 |
118 |
62 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
453 |
494 |
459 |
1062 |
828 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
328 |
178 |
886 |
8665 |
7013 |
|
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