Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-09-25
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-09-19:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
107257 |
19758 |
5086 |
2036 |
171 |
115 |
6 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
11 |
180 |
828 |
517 |
159 |
38 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
404 |
744 |
621 |
73 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
194 |
481 |
711 |
396 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
58 |
134 |
654 |
4469 |
661 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
12 |
231 |
5648 |
7157 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-09-23:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109502 |
18865 |
5485 |
1009 |
109 |
12 |
14 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
35 |
565 |
540 |
417 |
54 |
59 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
137 |
501 |
538 |
86 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
98 |
190 |
784 |
292 |
17 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
45 |
95 |
860 |
2039 |
85 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
134 |
6865 |
9408 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-09-25:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
107587 |
21874 |
4662 |
778 |
111 |
21 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
82 |
755 |
465 |
178 |
214 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
120 |
276 |
350 |
454 |
59 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
105 |
335 |
671 |
374 |
3 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
39 |
119 |
887 |
2438 |
7 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
26 |
208 |
9807 |
5825 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
107587 |
21869 |
4654 |
803 |
111 |
22 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
87 |
757 |
423 |
169 |
202 |
2 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
127 |
301 |
374 |
464 |
52 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
89 |
315 |
687 |
355 |
4 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
48 |
124 |
901 |
2781 |
7 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
26 |
179 |
9489 |
5824 |
|
Date: 2025-09-29:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
111578 |
17526 |
4737 |
686 |
77 |
18 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
74 |
762 |
520 |
162 |
91 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
129 |
427 |
369 |
231 |
8 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
9 |
172 |
357 |
499 |
51 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
74 |
378 |
1764 |
1934 |
20 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
47 |
293 |
8052 |
7798 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
111578 |
17357 |
4567 |
656 |
48 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
243 |
780 |
510 |
233 |
117 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
225 |
386 |
386 |
394 |
51 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
49 |
208 |
304 |
465 |
261 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
16 |
119 |
350 |
1489 |
1807 |
16 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
69 |
426 |
7926 |
7802 |
|
Date: 2025-10-01:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109506 |
18488 |
4959 |
1023 |
105 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
92 |
131 |
844 |
374 |
62 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1 |
22 |
334 |
502 |
304 |
32 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
83 |
228 |
420 |
150 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
70 |
336 |
854 |
1388 |
4 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
48 |
211 |
816 |
10960 |
6497 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109506 |
18308 |
4742 |
809 |
52 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
252 |
317 |
822 |
465 |
90 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
21 |
45 |
471 |
507 |
370 |
68 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
8 |
170 |
234 |
396 |
223 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
86 |
296 |
829 |
1479 |
4 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
44 |
202 |
771 |
10756 |
6497 |
|
Date: 2025-10-03:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106161 |
23353 |
4101 |
725 |
50 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
164 |
613 |
355 |
243 |
109 |
3 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
17 |
235 |
231 |
244 |
320 |
80 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
83 |
117 |
115 |
242 |
205 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
30 |
120 |
228 |
715 |
1089 |
3 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
30 |
145 |
800 |
10759 |
7149 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106161 |
23265 |
3741 |
467 |
18 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
244 |
950 |
494 |
133 |
91 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
24 |
266 |
344 |
357 |
278 |
39 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
1 |
76 |
144 |
159 |
366 |
223 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
29 |
107 |
172 |
646 |
1107 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
22 |
186 |
814 |
10767 |
7152 |
|
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