Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2025-09-25

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107257 19758 5086 2036 171 115 6 0
OW 0 11 180 828 517 159 38 0
VODI 0 0 2 404 744 621 73 0
ODI 0 0 0 194 481 711 396 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 134 654 4469 661
VCDI 0 0 0 32 12 231 5648 7157
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109502 18865 5485 1009 109 12 14 0
OW 0 35 565 540 417 54 59 0
VODI 0 0 2 137 501 538 86 0
ODI 0 0 0 98 190 784 292 17
CDI 0 0 0 45 95 860 2039 85
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 134 6865 9408
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107587 21874 4662 778 111 21 0 0
OW 0 82 755 465 178 214 1 0
VODI 0 0 120 276 350 454 59 0
ODI 0 0 5 105 335 671 374 3
CDI 0 0 0 39 119 887 2438 7
VCDI 0 0 0 8 26 208 9807 5825
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107587 21869 4654 803 111 22 0 0
OW 0 87 757 423 169 202 2 0
VODI 0 0 127 301 374 464 52 0
ODI 0 0 4 89 315 687 355 4
CDI 0 0 0 48 124 901 2781 7
VCDI 0 0 0 7 26 179 9489 5824

Date: 2025-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111578 17526 4737 686 77 18 0 0
OW 0 74 762 520 162 91 0 0
VODI 0 0 129 427 369 231 8 0
ODI 0 0 9 172 357 499 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 378 1764 1934 20
VCDI 0 0 0 1 47 293 8052 7798
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111578 17357 4567 656 48 5 0 0
OW 0 243 780 510 233 117 0 0
VODI 0 0 225 386 386 394 51 0
ODI 0 0 49 208 304 465 261 0
CDI 0 0 16 119 350 1489 1807 16
VCDI 0 0 0 1 69 426 7926 7802

Date: 2025-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109506 18488 4959 1023 105 0 0 0
OW 0 92 131 844 374 62 0 0
VODI 0 1 22 334 502 304 32 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 228 420 150 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 336 854 1388 4
VCDI 0 0 0 48 211 816 10960 6497
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109506 18308 4742 809 52 0 0 0
OW 0 252 317 822 465 90 4 0
VODI 0 21 45 471 507 370 68 0
ODI 0 0 8 170 234 396 223 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 296 829 1479 4
VCDI 0 0 0 44 202 771 10756 6497

Date: 2025-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106161 23353 4101 725 50 10 0 0
OW 0 164 613 355 243 109 3 0
VODI 0 17 235 231 244 320 80 0
ODI 0 0 83 117 115 242 205 0
CDI 0 0 30 120 228 715 1089 3
VCDI 0 0 0 30 145 800 10759 7149
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106161 23265 3741 467 18 1 0 0
OW 0 244 950 494 133 91 0 0
VODI 0 24 266 344 357 278 39 0
ODI 0 1 76 144 159 366 223 0
CDI 0 0 29 107 172 646 1107 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 186 814 10767 7152


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