Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2025-09-11

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106072 23326 5137 1187 120 20 36 0
OW 0 21 502 1866 619 206 82 0
VODI 0 0 2 548 1007 928 480 0
ODI 0 0 0 107 313 1654 5393 511
CDI 0 0 0 32 35 179 2401 1146
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 25 2673 2197
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110440 19399 5839 712 64 20 16 0
OW 0 68 1070 913 411 155 42 0
VODI 0 0 42 437 1199 1057 78 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 238 1466 2661 3
CDI 0 0 0 2 32 241 4292 2786
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 36 2643 2425
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109667 19805 5384 959 104 16 16 0
OW 0 168 746 1030 563 174 14 0
VODI 0 0 25 567 1577 825 150 0
ODI 0 0 4 67 421 1446 1916 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 44 346 4973 933
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 126 3124 3640
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109667 19633 5542 976 117 23 16 0
OW 0 340 582 985 566 178 10 0
VODI 0 0 33 592 1484 716 150 0
ODI 0 0 2 69 490 1518 1805 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 57 388 5196 1260
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 110 3016 3313

Date: 2025-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113317 15736 5609 876 97 10 8 0
OW 0 25 395 848 533 107 20 0
VODI 0 0 4 292 933 675 69 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 362 1045 205 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 183 1614 4633 1489
VCDI 0 0 0 10 15 222 4502 4934
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113317 15673 5399 789 150 22 7 0
OW 0 88 593 785 604 221 17 0
VODI 0 0 16 365 1025 1139 120 0
ODI 0 0 0 126 260 1301 1153 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 74 782 4052 1420
VCDI 0 0 0 10 10 208 4088 5003

Date: 2025-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111387 16600 6538 707 45 5 6 0
OW 0 2 525 737 351 92 13 0
VODI 0 0 32 459 815 581 49 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 365 1016 197 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 97 1150 4239 1304
VCDI 0 0 0 20 12 252 4911 6220
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111387 16582 6311 895 204 9 9 0
OW 0 20 714 566 552 346 13 0
VODI 0 0 64 369 624 1044 145 0
ODI 0 0 6 168 191 813 1114 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 104 755 3973 873
VCDI 0 0 0 11 10 129 4161 6651

Date: 2025-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107257 19758 5086 2036 171 115 6 0
OW 0 11 180 828 517 159 38 0
VODI 0 0 2 404 744 621 73 0
ODI 0 0 0 194 481 711 396 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 134 654 4469 661
VCDI 0 0 0 32 12 231 5648 7157
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107257 19699 4990 2089 643 193 9 0
OW 0 70 261 726 508 535 62 0
VODI 0 0 17 433 533 629 368 0
ODI 0 0 0 227 249 414 1077 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 121 550 4025 177
VCDI 0 0 0 6 5 170 5089 7641


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