Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-08-21
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-08-15:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
105142 |
22591 |
5246 |
969 |
68 |
26 |
68 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
985 |
1238 |
1858 |
267 |
96 |
214 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
10 |
83 |
662 |
600 |
536 |
635 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
7 |
79 |
209 |
1311 |
7645 |
559 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
40 |
38 |
2594 |
3413 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1198 |
444 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-08-19:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106774 |
22103 |
5157 |
1187 |
65 |
4 |
35 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
400 |
713 |
1098 |
234 |
50 |
139 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
65 |
790 |
703 |
398 |
363 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
59 |
367 |
2303 |
6133 |
996 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
11 |
48 |
1939 |
3031 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
1759 |
1914 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-08-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
108417 |
20449 |
5532 |
655 |
161 |
30 |
26 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
190 |
929 |
796 |
454 |
159 |
88 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
69 |
431 |
972 |
765 |
365 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
31 |
317 |
2013 |
5692 |
152 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
25 |
101 |
3098 |
3529 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
1848 |
1521 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
108417 |
20325 |
5743 |
734 |
196 |
42 |
38 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
314 |
711 |
762 |
459 |
164 |
102 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
74 |
381 |
939 |
743 |
386 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
36 |
307 |
1988 |
5105 |
483 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
30 |
132 |
3670 |
3251 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
1816 |
1468 |
|
Date: 2025-08-25:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109803 |
19223 |
6072 |
513 |
185 |
27 |
30 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
38 |
1017 |
863 |
402 |
121 |
35 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
167 |
391 |
657 |
718 |
179 |
17 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
122 |
43 |
173 |
1032 |
5771 |
466 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
22 |
20 |
74 |
2594 |
4507 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
5 |
1779 |
1773 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109803 |
18951 |
5719 |
432 |
184 |
37 |
30 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
310 |
1140 |
619 |
279 |
144 |
51 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
433 |
688 |
715 |
728 |
285 |
10 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
86 |
68 |
242 |
1011 |
6341 |
191 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
20 |
45 |
2160 |
5022 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
2 |
12 |
1521 |
1540 |
|
Date: 2025-08-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
107306 |
22344 |
5290 |
714 |
147 |
22 |
35 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
77 |
884 |
948 |
438 |
87 |
51 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
124 |
600 |
724 |
581 |
267 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
49 |
71 |
247 |
1372 |
5915 |
203 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
50 |
34 |
178 |
4481 |
3449 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1386 |
766 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
107306 |
21989 |
4830 |
607 |
149 |
22 |
29 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
426 |
1013 |
729 |
344 |
118 |
54 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
6 |
451 |
838 |
801 |
628 |
355 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
55 |
163 |
265 |
1358 |
5884 |
25 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
42 |
28 |
104 |
3961 |
3564 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
3 |
12 |
1852 |
829 |
|
Date: 2025-08-29:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106924 |
23332 |
4345 |
685 |
147 |
16 |
37 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
480 |
691 |
1046 |
341 |
51 |
78 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
30 |
163 |
1159 |
645 |
384 |
335 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
171 |
487 |
1748 |
5747 |
4 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
48 |
33 |
251 |
4806 |
3716 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
656 |
287 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106924 |
22794 |
4157 |
547 |
93 |
9 |
31 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
887 |
702 |
904 |
277 |
47 |
67 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
161 |
330 |
1343 |
727 |
509 |
406 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
11 |
265 |
504 |
1747 |
5011 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
45 |
42 |
107 |
4282 |
2785 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
10 |
31 |
1862 |
1222 |
|
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