Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-08-14
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-08-08:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
102563 |
21615 |
5026 |
430 |
81 |
36 |
93 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
711 |
2365 |
2583 |
552 |
194 |
248 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
21 |
499 |
652 |
539 |
667 |
542 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
9 |
207 |
279 |
648 |
4496 |
1367 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
36 |
112 |
4863 |
6433 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
552 |
413 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-08-12:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106873 |
19104 |
6355 |
778 |
174 |
59 |
83 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
699 |
2011 |
1461 |
596 |
127 |
235 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
65 |
248 |
568 |
840 |
640 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
22 |
79 |
744 |
6235 |
2201 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
15 |
39 |
3321 |
4364 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
635 |
267 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-08-14:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
104878 |
22116 |
5813 |
819 |
204 |
62 |
70 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
725 |
1727 |
1502 |
467 |
147 |
244 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
61 |
457 |
655 |
602 |
630 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
57 |
125 |
1303 |
7577 |
303 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
17 |
47 |
3200 |
3834 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
905 |
287 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
104878 |
21942 |
6112 |
1108 |
310 |
72 |
66 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
899 |
1423 |
1195 |
398 |
148 |
276 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
64 |
470 |
627 |
582 |
627 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
7 |
60 |
113 |
1224 |
7201 |
779 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
20 |
134 |
3616 |
3382 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
840 |
263 |
|
Date: 2025-08-18:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
108883 |
19469 |
5518 |
1498 |
122 |
2 |
35 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
433 |
712 |
1053 |
277 |
55 |
130 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
67 |
650 |
789 |
374 |
345 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
33 |
284 |
2008 |
6197 |
966 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
29 |
36 |
1824 |
3739 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
1762 |
1543 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
108883 |
18832 |
5208 |
1283 |
161 |
13 |
53 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1053 |
913 |
1177 |
329 |
133 |
174 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
17 |
173 |
734 |
816 |
637 |
602 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
6 |
39 |
173 |
1663 |
6413 |
1818 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
22 |
29 |
1417 |
2848 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
1634 |
1582 |
|
Date: 2025-08-20:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
108348 |
20245 |
5720 |
793 |
159 |
28 |
26 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
230 |
871 |
842 |
436 |
127 |
86 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
38 |
472 |
933 |
653 |
318 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
299 |
2320 |
6041 |
338 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
26 |
81 |
2496 |
3171 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
6 |
1991 |
1692 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
108348 |
19497 |
5289 |
679 |
198 |
31 |
44 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
978 |
1169 |
828 |
468 |
177 |
98 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
169 |
596 |
926 |
928 |
607 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
35 |
237 |
2036 |
6619 |
769 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
21 |
26 |
38 |
1545 |
2723 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
2045 |
1709 |
|
Date: 2025-08-22:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
105051 |
24218 |
5008 |
694 |
149 |
46 |
29 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
232 |
1057 |
714 |
411 |
149 |
63 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
108 |
496 |
937 |
839 |
366 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
6 |
35 |
348 |
1912 |
5567 |
165 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
25 |
77 |
3171 |
3444 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
1895 |
1601 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
105051 |
23216 |
4753 |
595 |
179 |
58 |
37 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1233 |
1147 |
721 |
446 |
174 |
71 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1 |
275 |
579 |
918 |
1006 |
691 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
49 |
308 |
1749 |
6284 |
448 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
23 |
38 |
2175 |
3283 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
1833 |
1479 |
|
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