Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-08-07
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-08-01:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
89983 |
25715 |
9575 |
1092 |
116 |
24 |
97 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
235 |
1708 |
2597 |
566 |
255 |
159 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
146 |
1347 |
1247 |
1099 |
635 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
186 |
460 |
1496 |
3657 |
1739 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
57 |
668 |
6758 |
3178 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
1383 |
2646 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-08-05:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
97644 |
21068 |
8916 |
660 |
60 |
20 |
96 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
206 |
2327 |
3050 |
1007 |
125 |
212 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
124 |
698 |
851 |
943 |
474 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
59 |
199 |
915 |
4635 |
2143 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
23 |
109 |
4651 |
5707 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
899 |
1020 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-08-07:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
100629 |
20246 |
7762 |
518 |
70 |
27 |
104 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
425 |
2376 |
2831 |
736 |
145 |
243 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
246 |
943 |
713 |
538 |
541 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
115 |
271 |
708 |
4579 |
1535 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
29 |
123 |
4784 |
6424 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
664 |
510 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
100629 |
20186 |
7932 |
705 |
96 |
32 |
96 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
484 |
2184 |
2712 |
777 |
165 |
256 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1 |
268 |
857 |
634 |
516 |
566 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
133 |
277 |
697 |
4316 |
1440 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
35 |
131 |
4932 |
6250 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
749 |
779 |
|
Date: 2025-08-11:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106631 |
18905 |
6408 |
809 |
178 |
19 |
87 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
545 |
2239 |
1603 |
509 |
106 |
234 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
70 |
407 |
649 |
630 |
650 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
37 |
159 |
518 |
6547 |
2643 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
14 |
49 |
2469 |
4762 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
627 |
331 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106631 |
18416 |
5595 |
588 |
145 |
30 |
105 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
923 |
2440 |
1701 |
544 |
109 |
330 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
111 |
524 |
410 |
483 |
420 |
685 |
9 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
160 |
147 |
300 |
657 |
4154 |
993 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
13 |
37 |
106 |
5047 |
6561 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
293 |
173 |
|
Date: 2025-08-13:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106372 |
20110 |
6059 |
695 |
245 |
183 |
67 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
627 |
1742 |
1349 |
655 |
352 |
269 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
64 |
210 |
613 |
781 |
668 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
33 |
74 |
653 |
6198 |
2281 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
16 |
40 |
3121 |
4411 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
674 |
276 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106372 |
19482 |
5347 |
552 |
204 |
156 |
111 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1137 |
1943 |
1392 |
608 |
396 |
338 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
118 |
441 |
253 |
525 |
608 |
710 |
1 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
139 |
89 |
238 |
719 |
3948 |
553 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
28 |
130 |
5601 |
6356 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
289 |
58 |
|
Date: 2025-08-15:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
105142 |
22591 |
5246 |
969 |
68 |
26 |
68 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
985 |
1238 |
1858 |
267 |
96 |
214 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
10 |
83 |
662 |
600 |
536 |
635 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
7 |
79 |
209 |
1311 |
7645 |
559 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
40 |
38 |
2594 |
3413 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1198 |
444 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
105142 |
21268 |
4618 |
826 |
127 |
37 |
87 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1605 |
1654 |
1807 |
281 |
107 |
312 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
516 |
209 |
675 |
422 |
454 |
775 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
197 |
93 |
261 |
315 |
1093 |
4390 |
118 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
40 |
317 |
6534 |
4270 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
256 |
28 |
|
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