Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-07-31
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-07-25:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
86253 |
25941 |
9437 |
1426 |
183 |
33 |
116 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
448 |
2491 |
3392 |
627 |
115 |
242 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
3 |
167 |
1999 |
1362 |
871 |
579 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
265 |
775 |
1428 |
2188 |
39 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
194 |
1000 |
8377 |
4798 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
1747 |
2323 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-07-29:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
87678 |
25303 |
11721 |
1673 |
214 |
25 |
92 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
35 |
1679 |
2671 |
599 |
167 |
182 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
122 |
1216 |
1302 |
1344 |
550 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
85 |
371 |
1562 |
4151 |
1574 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
90 |
504 |
6529 |
3864 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
5 |
1570 |
1929 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-07-31:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
88079 |
25928 |
11148 |
1272 |
117 |
21 |
96 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
68 |
1950 |
2378 |
650 |
207 |
157 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
141 |
1336 |
1201 |
1222 |
606 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
133 |
433 |
1519 |
3832 |
1737 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
29 |
90 |
622 |
6615 |
3180 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
22 |
4 |
1484 |
2566 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
88079 |
25937 |
11214 |
1242 |
107 |
18 |
96 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
59 |
1833 |
2410 |
699 |
212 |
157 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
193 |
1356 |
1171 |
1209 |
609 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
107 |
409 |
1404 |
3765 |
1722 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
33 |
107 |
748 |
6686 |
3132 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
20 |
4 |
1477 |
2629 |
|
Date: 2025-08-04:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
97005 |
20483 |
9556 |
827 |
68 |
27 |
115 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
88 |
2034 |
3253 |
1224 |
109 |
214 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
70 |
547 |
980 |
1134 |
445 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
47 |
186 |
679 |
4929 |
2751 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
39 |
3968 |
5481 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
984 |
1590 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
97005 |
20156 |
8715 |
585 |
39 |
19 |
103 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
415 |
2260 |
2096 |
800 |
96 |
165 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
647 |
1753 |
1200 |
626 |
456 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
42 |
193 |
339 |
996 |
3087 |
2601 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
47 |
87 |
251 |
5791 |
6021 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1053 |
1200 |
|
Date: 2025-08-06:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
98265 |
20826 |
8927 |
609 |
80 |
26 |
97 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
94 |
2765 |
2937 |
726 |
159 |
240 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
307 |
971 |
737 |
520 |
524 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
124 |
361 |
771 |
4412 |
2031 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
27 |
105 |
4592 |
5942 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
805 |
859 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
98265 |
20398 |
8096 |
412 |
43 |
21 |
91 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
522 |
2617 |
2058 |
468 |
109 |
140 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
1206 |
1736 |
746 |
399 |
484 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
80 |
367 |
629 |
778 |
2862 |
1982 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
73 |
45 |
272 |
6403 |
6418 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
690 |
432 |
|
Date: 2025-08-08:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
102563 |
21615 |
5026 |
430 |
81 |
36 |
93 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
711 |
2365 |
2583 |
552 |
194 |
248 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
21 |
499 |
652 |
539 |
667 |
542 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
9 |
207 |
279 |
648 |
4496 |
1367 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
36 |
112 |
4863 |
6433 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
552 |
413 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
102561 |
20527 |
4604 |
318 |
66 |
36 |
87 |
0 |
| OW |
2 |
1537 |
1834 |
1900 |
394 |
144 |
149 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
283 |
1261 |
1252 |
638 |
487 |
557 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
197 |
376 |
342 |
735 |
2825 |
1329 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
38 |
47 |
255 |
6811 |
6736 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
365 |
148 |
|
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