Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-07-24
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-07-18:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
81427 |
24462 |
12174 |
1716 |
228 |
54 |
118 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
397 |
3091 |
4160 |
857 |
331 |
272 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
222 |
2408 |
1634 |
809 |
775 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
6 |
374 |
849 |
1643 |
1910 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
35 |
126 |
858 |
11800 |
5225 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
46 |
768 |
65 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-07-22:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
85828 |
25729 |
10081 |
1579 |
187 |
57 |
131 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
175 |
2075 |
3912 |
979 |
222 |
211 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
55 |
1702 |
1521 |
912 |
492 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
199 |
613 |
1461 |
1297 |
19 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
147 |
1103 |
9369 |
4454 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1622 |
2702 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-07-24:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
86032 |
26231 |
8963 |
1588 |
222 |
40 |
137 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
319 |
2376 |
3559 |
757 |
205 |
224 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
73 |
1852 |
1551 |
848 |
585 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
247 |
720 |
1539 |
1796 |
16 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
156 |
1022 |
8880 |
4491 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1737 |
2653 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
86032 |
26294 |
9179 |
1712 |
253 |
43 |
150 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
256 |
2173 |
3441 |
755 |
195 |
230 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
60 |
1857 |
1556 |
894 |
575 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
219 |
688 |
1467 |
1782 |
32 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
154 |
1055 |
8842 |
4540 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1780 |
2588 |
|
Date: 2025-07-28:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
88528 |
23648 |
12026 |
2053 |
219 |
27 |
113 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
71 |
1498 |
2627 |
784 |
223 |
230 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
96 |
731 |
1624 |
1555 |
571 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
299 |
1391 |
3930 |
1577 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
65 |
334 |
6060 |
5251 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
2 |
1639 |
1625 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
88528 |
23468 |
10920 |
1646 |
183 |
35 |
144 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
251 |
2403 |
2100 |
580 |
226 |
250 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
258 |
1414 |
1465 |
1259 |
807 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
39 |
219 |
666 |
1375 |
2547 |
1522 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
70 |
83 |
632 |
7171 |
4348 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
23 |
5 |
1624 |
2583 |
|
Date: 2025-07-30:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
87901 |
26301 |
10664 |
1620 |
135 |
18 |
92 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
38 |
1835 |
2539 |
619 |
157 |
183 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
106 |
1338 |
1226 |
1243 |
602 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
128 |
431 |
1394 |
4030 |
1647 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
91 |
630 |
6586 |
3501 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
23 |
5 |
1517 |
2219 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
87901 |
26032 |
9635 |
1238 |
132 |
21 |
122 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
307 |
2501 |
1892 |
422 |
185 |
213 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
420 |
1937 |
1139 |
1114 |
812 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
49 |
494 |
682 |
1358 |
2596 |
1945 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
89 |
116 |
762 |
7474 |
2736 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
34 |
7 |
1793 |
2686 |
|
Date: 2025-08-01:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
89983 |
25715 |
9575 |
1092 |
116 |
24 |
97 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
235 |
1708 |
2597 |
566 |
255 |
159 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
146 |
1347 |
1247 |
1099 |
635 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
186 |
460 |
1496 |
3657 |
1739 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
57 |
668 |
6758 |
3178 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
1383 |
2646 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
89983 |
25110 |
8984 |
911 |
98 |
30 |
131 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
840 |
1962 |
1862 |
348 |
222 |
180 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
408 |
1876 |
1229 |
990 |
791 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
74 |
482 |
665 |
1465 |
2693 |
2536 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
99 |
106 |
819 |
7183 |
2314 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
1711 |
2713 |
|
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