Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-07-17
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-07-11:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79274 |
24480 |
13929 |
1122 |
184 |
68 |
175 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
534 |
3071 |
2204 |
551 |
224 |
455 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
792 |
2050 |
1382 |
974 |
1331 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
154 |
363 |
578 |
1147 |
2886 |
32 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
35 |
119 |
114 |
142 |
8473 |
3592 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1628 |
6779 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-07-15:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80564 |
22733 |
14982 |
1433 |
208 |
66 |
160 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
452 |
3647 |
4126 |
728 |
278 |
335 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
376 |
2249 |
1650 |
701 |
784 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
24 |
336 |
888 |
1463 |
1834 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
53 |
73 |
574 |
12017 |
5427 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
519 |
163 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-07-17:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80638 |
22166 |
15123 |
1587 |
220 |
57 |
131 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
361 |
3775 |
3866 |
778 |
306 |
274 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
261 |
2645 |
1534 |
774 |
810 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
9 |
427 |
870 |
1528 |
1862 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
44 |
119 |
672 |
11709 |
5479 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
16 |
655 |
146 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80638 |
22408 |
15469 |
1835 |
254 |
67 |
153 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
119 |
3471 |
3625 |
737 |
320 |
281 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
223 |
2600 |
1514 |
785 |
815 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
456 |
875 |
1416 |
2001 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
53 |
138 |
726 |
11496 |
5440 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
39 |
695 |
185 |
|
Date: 2025-07-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
86236 |
25078 |
10423 |
1426 |
180 |
55 |
118 |
0 |
| OW |
8 |
172 |
2329 |
3838 |
1033 |
189 |
211 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
58 |
1644 |
1547 |
1000 |
494 |
2 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
154 |
612 |
1419 |
1235 |
15 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
106 |
1000 |
9829 |
4256 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1888 |
2279 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
86226 |
24379 |
9292 |
954 |
143 |
36 |
108 |
0 |
| OW |
18 |
871 |
3135 |
3116 |
849 |
215 |
240 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
382 |
2339 |
1493 |
764 |
562 |
4 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
633 |
822 |
1499 |
2314 |
44 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
171 |
1151 |
10211 |
6398 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
340 |
106 |
|
Date: 2025-07-23:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
85759 |
26132 |
9307 |
1674 |
262 |
70 |
131 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
261 |
2157 |
3682 |
934 |
245 |
219 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
51 |
1796 |
1454 |
948 |
545 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
214 |
690 |
1468 |
1548 |
12 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
193 |
1010 |
8664 |
5030 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1773 |
2597 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
85749 |
25136 |
8465 |
1296 |
257 |
56 |
154 |
0 |
| OW |
10 |
1249 |
2758 |
3122 |
842 |
252 |
266 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
8 |
292 |
2230 |
1383 |
784 |
638 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
688 |
792 |
1502 |
3160 |
455 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
48 |
259 |
1147 |
8417 |
6952 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
245 |
232 |
|
Date: 2025-07-25:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
86253 |
25941 |
9437 |
1426 |
183 |
33 |
116 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
448 |
2491 |
3392 |
627 |
115 |
242 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
3 |
167 |
1999 |
1362 |
871 |
579 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
265 |
775 |
1428 |
2188 |
39 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
194 |
1000 |
8377 |
4798 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
1747 |
2323 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
86253 |
25093 |
8348 |
1372 |
182 |
68 |
179 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1299 |
3074 |
2906 |
661 |
163 |
355 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
599 |
2153 |
1223 |
734 |
808 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
74 |
584 |
914 |
1521 |
3735 |
390 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
84 |
159 |
966 |
7701 |
6544 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
471 |
226 |
|
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