Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-07-10
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-07-04:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79920 |
19887 |
14930 |
1076 |
179 |
73 |
219 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
173 |
3450 |
2282 |
402 |
217 |
444 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
854 |
1508 |
778 |
566 |
1375 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
289 |
553 |
565 |
1049 |
3125 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
207 |
439 |
325 |
369 |
5139 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
21 |
7560 |
10860 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-07-08:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80324 |
23554 |
14001 |
1080 |
190 |
61 |
199 |
0 |
| OW |
25 |
249 |
3647 |
1697 |
659 |
234 |
408 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
640 |
1358 |
1279 |
1106 |
1343 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
167 |
317 |
383 |
1311 |
2706 |
37 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
20 |
38 |
58 |
215 |
7310 |
2649 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
3621 |
7956 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-07-10:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79711 |
24141 |
13749 |
1151 |
177 |
60 |
198 |
0 |
| OW |
12 |
675 |
3115 |
1954 |
547 |
210 |
500 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
29 |
857 |
1924 |
1269 |
890 |
1312 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
285 |
415 |
435 |
1196 |
2658 |
21 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
56 |
172 |
130 |
257 |
8304 |
3291 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
2227 |
6907 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79723 |
24169 |
14231 |
1190 |
195 |
67 |
230 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
666 |
2753 |
1944 |
529 |
188 |
460 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
10 |
731 |
1859 |
1266 |
861 |
1276 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
273 |
439 |
428 |
1242 |
2706 |
24 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
74 |
186 |
143 |
257 |
7962 |
3762 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2565 |
6433 |
|
Date: 2025-07-14:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79819 |
22716 |
15542 |
1667 |
224 |
70 |
187 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
364 |
3280 |
4417 |
947 |
265 |
394 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
305 |
1832 |
1770 |
846 |
888 |
1 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
13 |
365 |
716 |
867 |
2550 |
16 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
26 |
67 |
135 |
8881 |
8725 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
625 |
324 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79819 |
22362 |
14638 |
1286 |
195 |
78 |
209 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
664 |
3055 |
2739 |
639 |
236 |
401 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
54 |
1019 |
3018 |
1365 |
663 |
1018 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
344 |
1032 |
1400 |
893 |
2023 |
16 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
84 |
232 |
125 |
313 |
8737 |
7666 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1137 |
1384 |
|
Date: 2025-07-16:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80274 |
22767 |
15016 |
1501 |
221 |
71 |
161 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
562 |
3513 |
4043 |
742 |
294 |
368 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
377 |
2519 |
1441 |
685 |
849 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
25 |
404 |
888 |
1388 |
1788 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
69 |
97 |
676 |
11921 |
5476 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
530 |
178 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80274 |
22303 |
13727 |
1187 |
175 |
67 |
149 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
936 |
3542 |
2656 |
548 |
264 |
401 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
90 |
1242 |
3021 |
1104 |
576 |
959 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
348 |
1408 |
1292 |
1116 |
1724 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
72 |
264 |
269 |
1050 |
9991 |
5576 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
41 |
2393 |
78 |
|
Date: 2025-07-18:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
81427 |
24462 |
12174 |
1716 |
228 |
54 |
118 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
397 |
3091 |
4160 |
857 |
331 |
272 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
222 |
2408 |
1634 |
809 |
775 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
6 |
374 |
849 |
1643 |
1910 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
35 |
126 |
858 |
11800 |
5225 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
46 |
768 |
65 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
81427 |
23682 |
10506 |
1368 |
185 |
59 |
136 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1125 |
3512 |
2907 |
687 |
318 |
320 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
52 |
1229 |
3052 |
1265 |
724 |
907 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
177 |
1166 |
1265 |
1236 |
1783 |
20 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
69 |
200 |
293 |
1344 |
9568 |
5128 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
60 |
2929 |
142 |
|
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