Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-07-03
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-06-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
77556 |
19139 |
12074 |
1144 |
181 |
56 |
374 |
11 |
| OW |
0 |
365 |
3442 |
2804 |
512 |
131 |
451 |
35 |
| VODI |
0 |
8 |
690 |
2294 |
1378 |
803 |
1495 |
93 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
211 |
463 |
625 |
825 |
3077 |
67 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
139 |
342 |
362 |
431 |
6430 |
808 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
26 |
18 |
115 |
8341 |
11528 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-07-01:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79868 |
19022 |
14504 |
1687 |
230 |
144 |
206 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
281 |
2835 |
2983 |
694 |
201 |
419 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
515 |
1273 |
927 |
564 |
1185 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
171 |
424 |
483 |
800 |
2331 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
315 |
419 |
559 |
6149 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
18 |
8109 |
11521 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-07-03:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80395 |
19655 |
14588 |
987 |
176 |
99 |
225 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
220 |
3419 |
2231 |
410 |
206 |
527 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
4 |
918 |
1352 |
760 |
598 |
1309 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
285 |
646 |
564 |
896 |
2868 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
143 |
426 |
392 |
456 |
5112 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
27 |
8095 |
10851 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80395 |
19689 |
14900 |
1161 |
188 |
105 |
265 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
185 |
3155 |
2127 |
409 |
202 |
476 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
5 |
909 |
1306 |
729 |
542 |
1262 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
283 |
678 |
610 |
925 |
2880 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
106 |
370 |
366 |
490 |
5221 |
15 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
18 |
8032 |
10836 |
|
Date: 2025-07-07:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79956 |
23993 |
13448 |
1313 |
199 |
53 |
177 |
0 |
| OW |
2 |
289 |
3425 |
1993 |
663 |
190 |
344 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
619 |
1107 |
1442 |
1240 |
1135 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
219 |
185 |
423 |
1486 |
2518 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
10 |
19 |
48 |
185 |
7468 |
2849 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3960 |
7886 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79700 |
23437 |
12506 |
1128 |
166 |
44 |
177 |
0 |
| OW |
258 |
795 |
3254 |
1344 |
432 |
204 |
352 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
50 |
1121 |
1386 |
945 |
745 |
1202 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
429 |
536 |
892 |
1400 |
2171 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
411 |
223 |
334 |
757 |
5803 |
92 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
4 |
5897 |
10643 |
|
Date: 2025-07-09:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79963 |
24682 |
13185 |
1070 |
193 |
65 |
203 |
0 |
| OW |
23 |
550 |
3316 |
1978 |
510 |
177 |
477 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
747 |
1758 |
1254 |
920 |
1316 |
2 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
133 |
432 |
433 |
1114 |
2810 |
36 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
24 |
71 |
88 |
203 |
7466 |
2453 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
3350 |
7828 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79861 |
24121 |
12104 |
695 |
148 |
52 |
202 |
0 |
| OW |
125 |
900 |
3475 |
1436 |
338 |
167 |
465 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
172 |
1081 |
1931 |
913 |
675 |
1360 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
39 |
377 |
870 |
785 |
1063 |
2581 |
26 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
368 |
381 |
298 |
526 |
5408 |
656 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
5606 |
9637 |
|
Date: 2025-07-11:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79274 |
24480 |
13929 |
1122 |
184 |
68 |
175 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
534 |
3071 |
2204 |
551 |
224 |
455 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
792 |
2050 |
1382 |
974 |
1331 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
154 |
363 |
578 |
1147 |
2886 |
32 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
35 |
119 |
114 |
142 |
8473 |
3592 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1628 |
6779 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79245 |
24043 |
13017 |
940 |
137 |
65 |
157 |
0 |
| OW |
29 |
695 |
3043 |
1692 |
504 |
238 |
405 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
207 |
1011 |
2261 |
1039 |
706 |
1147 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
67 |
433 |
518 |
738 |
1129 |
2829 |
9 |
| CDI |
0 |
2 |
477 |
447 |
391 |
419 |
6459 |
1399 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3951 |
8995 |
|
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