Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-06-26
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-06-20:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
75168 |
20266 |
8478 |
911 |
152 |
70 |
367 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
384 |
3626 |
2704 |
786 |
359 |
501 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
6 |
794 |
2382 |
1744 |
2033 |
1777 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
82 |
271 |
494 |
1646 |
3933 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
165 |
242 |
340 |
535 |
6660 |
116 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
44 |
132 |
106 |
67 |
10657 |
10846 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-06-24:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
76390 |
17685 |
12423 |
1508 |
210 |
89 |
425 |
5 |
| OW |
0 |
120 |
3140 |
2968 |
800 |
334 |
510 |
30 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
406 |
1685 |
1926 |
1816 |
1658 |
96 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
116 |
241 |
399 |
1230 |
3677 |
75 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
484 |
146 |
178 |
328 |
6252 |
93 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
142 |
32 |
24 |
25 |
8701 |
12477 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-06-26:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
76647 |
17766 |
13427 |
1179 |
173 |
63 |
386 |
1 |
| OW |
0 |
184 |
3741 |
2720 |
583 |
147 |
436 |
29 |
| VODI |
0 |
9 |
681 |
2665 |
1322 |
1033 |
1450 |
115 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
146 |
397 |
498 |
1045 |
3054 |
66 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
176 |
327 |
343 |
455 |
6641 |
1161 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
25 |
127 |
8289 |
11325 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
76647 |
17784 |
13702 |
1340 |
201 |
80 |
406 |
1 |
| OW |
0 |
165 |
3449 |
2580 |
547 |
126 |
382 |
33 |
| VODI |
0 |
10 |
719 |
2657 |
1329 |
1071 |
1465 |
109 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
169 |
358 |
477 |
1023 |
3225 |
68 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
132 |
349 |
359 |
439 |
7027 |
1660 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
31 |
131 |
7751 |
10826 |
|
Date: 2025-06-30:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79900 |
18918 |
14352 |
1291 |
175 |
87 |
369 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
252 |
3345 |
2893 |
673 |
207 |
364 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
404 |
1307 |
938 |
663 |
1127 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
188 |
390 |
542 |
914 |
2355 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
8 |
303 |
350 |
496 |
6220 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
20 |
8231 |
11558 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79900 |
18495 |
13146 |
1085 |
177 |
98 |
371 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
667 |
3585 |
2114 |
492 |
167 |
416 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
8 |
1166 |
1527 |
794 |
551 |
1302 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
371 |
564 |
650 |
842 |
2668 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
29 |
852 |
527 |
643 |
6255 |
56 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
42 |
42 |
86 |
7654 |
11502 |
|
Date: 2025-07-02:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80528 |
19538 |
14226 |
1140 |
204 |
147 |
189 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
208 |
3391 |
2485 |
445 |
206 |
477 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
710 |
1306 |
730 |
680 |
1259 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
166 |
536 |
488 |
799 |
2576 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
27 |
370 |
360 |
527 |
5601 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
24 |
8391 |
11102 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80528 |
18954 |
12783 |
985 |
200 |
149 |
199 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
792 |
3659 |
1953 |
357 |
196 |
521 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
1493 |
1295 |
621 |
606 |
1372 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
445 |
721 |
501 |
673 |
2922 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
140 |
815 |
462 |
592 |
6083 |
184 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
68 |
94 |
167 |
7396 |
10918 |
|
Date: 2025-07-04:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79920 |
19887 |
14930 |
1076 |
179 |
73 |
219 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
173 |
3450 |
2282 |
402 |
217 |
444 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
854 |
1508 |
778 |
566 |
1375 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
289 |
553 |
565 |
1049 |
3125 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
207 |
439 |
325 |
369 |
5139 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
21 |
7560 |
10860 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79920 |
19437 |
13786 |
1018 |
203 |
70 |
213 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
623 |
3722 |
2179 |
385 |
202 |
554 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
1351 |
1185 |
726 |
706 |
1411 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
518 |
630 |
455 |
764 |
2682 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
326 |
771 |
426 |
462 |
6529 |
467 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
27 |
76 |
63 |
91 |
6473 |
10393 |
|
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