Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2025-05-22

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58496 23079 2988 769 136 43 50 0
OW 69 982 2134 2324 502 345 114 0
VODI 2 184 885 2892 2836 2037 626 3
ODI 2 36 228 849 1474 3772 3102 44
CDI 1 5 83 768 587 3063 18265 1304
VCDI 0 0 0 17 17 66 9012 14653
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57569 22126 4781 1229 312 81 31 0
OW 13 467 1770 3154 1583 394 204 0
VODI 2 7 690 2461 3887 3048 839 5
ODI 3 0 134 642 967 3572 6132 54
CDI 0 0 49 334 461 1148 17632 184
VCDI 0 0 0 37 16 15 7109 15702
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57257 22191 5105 872 208 99 39 0
OW 10 281 2208 3730 1441 430 215 0
VODI 2 60 446 3014 3070 2444 1568 7
ODI 3 0 102 825 1403 2114 6921 55
CDI 0 0 8 354 542 1133 18475 191
VCDI 0 0 0 54 52 40 6160 15715
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57251 22203 5092 944 224 104 46 0
OW 16 273 2219 3671 1297 356 202 0
VODI 2 56 450 3043 3199 2601 1692 10
ODI 3 0 100 780 1400 2096 6821 53
CDI 0 0 8 359 550 1073 18553 232
VCDI 0 0 0 52 46 30 6064 15673

Date: 2025-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61548 20808 6015 1009 208 31 63 0
OW 3 152 2146 2829 1807 516 321 0
VODI 3 0 441 2337 3090 2268 786 0
ODI 2 0 52 782 1398 5765 3323 1
CDI 0 0 16 240 280 1933 14213 322
VCDI 0 0 0 70 31 40 9158 14837
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61547 20718 4480 504 102 27 52 0
OW 5 220 3295 2808 1663 329 262 0
VODI 4 22 676 2561 3098 2807 1081 0
ODI 0 0 191 931 1427 5074 3767 2
CDI 0 0 28 358 467 2222 14949 47
VCDI 0 0 0 105 57 94 7753 15111

Date: 2025-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63421 22121 4727 708 102 29 37 0
OW 4 98 2664 2912 1229 334 312 0
VODI 4 0 568 2585 3159 1870 819 0
ODI 0 0 101 623 1432 4489 3446 0
CDI 0 0 35 269 534 1659 15709 585
VCDI 0 0 0 60 30 46 8859 13264
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63422 21765 2946 393 108 33 37 0
OW 3 390 3884 2747 1443 369 242 0
VODI 4 64 909 2640 2857 2243 1083 0
ODI 0 0 239 896 1466 4048 4323 0
CDI 0 0 117 372 521 1615 15196 236
VCDI 0 0 0 109 91 119 8301 13613

Date: 2025-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67458 20472 2721 563 120 57 50 0
OW 4 559 2314 2744 1552 363 301 1
VODI 3 47 1044 1911 3148 2123 1056 23
ODI 0 22 113 584 1378 4031 3969 66
CDI 0 8 48 409 548 1419 16295 2731
VCDI 0 0 0 31 25 21 6117 12395
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67459 19266 1708 261 127 47 37 0
OW 3 1478 2869 2356 1613 520 314 5
VODI 3 313 1111 2257 2540 2331 1741 36
ODI 0 42 400 801 1721 3615 4557 82
CDI 0 9 152 515 746 1490 15593 1978
VCDI 0 0 0 52 24 11 5546 13115


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