Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2024-10-17

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106163 19052 3077 649 64 38 2 0
OW 115 79 514 392 128 50 0 0
VODI 0 5 229 265 435 231 11 0
ODI 0 0 96 137 194 405 91 0
CDI 0 0 43 113 264 705 1142 24
VCDI 0 0 0 32 118 1103 12276 10226
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108605 18196 1782 348 21 5 2 0
OW 486 593 637 391 47 0 0 0
VODI 303 120 249 521 228 72 5 0
ODI 0 27 165 270 207 241 135 0
CDI 0 3 157 405 346 459 1444 38
VCDI 0 0 2 172 458 796 10927 9605
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98896 25603 2646 774 224 30 2 0
OW 0 749 483 572 246 59 15 0
VODI 0 236 214 431 487 259 39 0
ODI 0 47 176 249 242 374 281 0
CDI 0 22 205 369 679 407 1455 0
VCDI 0 0 13 145 421 951 13143 7324
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98896 25705 2630 736 208 38 8 0
OW 0 688 503 636 278 63 15 0
VODI 0 205 217 369 434 213 37 0
ODI 0 34 187 262 257 351 256 0
CDI 0 25 181 366 707 478 1442 0
VCDI 0 0 19 171 415 937 13177 7324

Date: 2024-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101149 23002 2657 716 35 12 2 0
OW 0 694 1240 818 179 36 0 0
VODI 0 51 497 814 520 131 30 0
ODI 0 7 184 420 463 165 152 0
CDI 0 0 74 359 551 516 3800 45
VCDI 0 0 0 164 362 1500 10673 6450
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101149 22823 2784 787 72 14 2 0
OW 0 539 787 825 315 73 12 0
VODI 0 259 437 642 363 94 30 0
ODI 0 67 244 332 313 103 120 0
CDI 0 66 311 483 575 508 1294 0
VCDI 0 0 89 222 472 1568 13199 6495

Date: 2024-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98286 23667 3339 980 65 20 2 0
OW 0 280 996 911 308 179 0 0
VODI 0 32 423 665 453 349 9 0
ODI 0 0 335 402 362 450 50 0
CDI 0 0 139 387 487 836 2056 152
VCDI 0 0 1 354 498 1271 9849 9875
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98286 23440 3250 975 84 57 2 0
OW 0 334 717 891 273 184 5 0
VODI 0 127 572 778 506 310 12 0
ODI 0 52 338 433 475 400 53 0
CDI 0 26 324 299 391 1030 2056 233
VCDI 0 0 32 323 444 1124 9838 9794

Date: 2024-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97226 24663 2418 616 203 26 2 0
OW 0 390 803 965 446 119 3 0
VODI 0 66 162 810 500 252 29 0
ODI 0 37 91 738 367 278 69 0
CDI 0 13 157 971 311 548 1238 0
VCDI 0 0 148 652 295 1394 11891 9571
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97226 24262 2444 981 245 31 2 0
OW 0 651 518 754 408 115 1 0
VODI 0 195 442 1021 487 257 15 0
ODI 0 59 253 832 348 219 70 0
CDI 0 2 122 811 414 615 1449 103
VCDI 0 0 0 353 220 1380 11695 9468


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