Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2024-10-03

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111121 19568 1945 711 159 11 0 0
OW 0 402 385 482 159 91 0 0
VODI 0 93 215 509 360 202 21 0
ODI 0 41 84 239 218 207 122 0
CDI 0 27 44 174 260 413 796 41
VCDI 0 0 19 25 110 574 8875 9765
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112968 17500 1652 573 102 5 2 0
OW 0 749 423 211 149 25 0 0
VODI 0 43 289 351 195 201 28 0
ODI 0 0 48 256 174 346 137 0
CDI 0 0 16 185 238 663 886 0
VCDI 0 0 0 133 187 766 12380 6587
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108049 20434 2210 659 119 34 2 0
OW 0 371 672 432 209 96 0 0
VODI 0 40 275 247 328 295 3 0
ODI 0 0 83 105 241 404 50 0
CDI 0 0 37 105 283 792 596 0
VCDI 0 0 0 65 143 893 13191 7005
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108049 20492 2293 679 137 41 2 0
OW 0 310 628 396 199 87 0 0
VODI 0 43 238 268 337 303 3 0
ODI 0 0 87 98 235 409 51 0
CDI 0 0 31 95 267 794 725 0
VCDI 0 0 0 77 148 880 13061 7005

Date: 2024-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86289 16795 3597 795 229 52 2 0
OW 0 0 402 390 224 270 10 0
VODI 0 0 97 233 350 437 104 0
ODI 0 0 2 65 203 327 315 4
CDI 0 0 0 17 139 464 1881 97
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 455 11363 10551
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86289 16774 3557 784 305 324 49 0
OW 0 21 361 396 258 295 190 0
VODI 0 0 154 196 259 241 261 0
ODI 0 0 24 81 153 213 381 0
CDI 0 0 2 43 173 480 1509 118
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 452 11285 10534

Date: 2024-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105854 18840 3558 978 195 19 2 0
OW 0 14 398 304 230 172 0 0
VODI 0 0 159 224 234 436 113 0
ODI 0 0 50 101 125 316 327 0
CDI 0 0 11 44 118 718 1715 3
VCDI 0 0 0 2 111 578 11988 10531
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105854 18692 3326 1011 297 197 84 0
OW 0 131 336 240 138 267 156 0
VODI 0 26 308 197 213 348 267 0
ODI 0 5 120 109 90 267 351 0
CDI 0 0 84 91 165 586 1691 3
VCDI 0 0 2 5 110 574 11596 10531

Date: 2024-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106163 19052 3077 649 64 38 2 0
OW 115 79 514 392 128 50 0 0
VODI 0 5 229 265 435 231 11 0
ODI 0 0 96 137 194 405 91 0
CDI 0 0 43 113 264 705 1142 24
VCDI 0 0 0 32 118 1103 12276 10226
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106249 18666 3004 853 221 60 2 0
OW 29 301 333 202 265 166 8 0
VODI 0 126 266 198 209 426 120 0
ODI 0 38 181 106 107 238 232 0
CDI 0 5 165 167 262 586 790 0
VCDI 0 0 10 62 139 1056 12370 10250


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