Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2024-08-01

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84855 18321 11927 2332 370 105 97 0
OW 0 7 2556 2674 946 301 181 0
VODI 0 0 552 2879 1891 1135 730 9
ODI 0 0 277 628 708 1231 1873 64
CDI 0 0 116 107 44 232 8379 11389
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 845 707
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87508 17425 15159 2686 373 68 108 0
OW 0 315 1853 2514 728 168 222 0
VODI 0 0 598 2272 1889 983 613 0
ODI 0 0 208 273 366 1101 5433 33
CDI 0 0 13 24 25 64 5987 8444
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 679 336
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88330 17554 15428 2634 451 63 89 0
OW 0 397 1653 2228 643 169 223 0
VODI 0 5 538 2228 1663 1207 662 0
ODI 0 0 109 316 403 1388 4698 146
CDI 0 0 0 18 28 165 7420 7067
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 357 188
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88330 17697 15692 2803 456 70 106 0
OW 0 256 1449 2106 677 180 225 0
VODI 0 3 467 2125 1594 1120 586 0
ODI 0 0 119 369 434 1452 4825 127
CDI 0 0 1 21 27 170 7365 7116
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 342 158

Date: 2024-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90589 22582 11558 1586 221 44 82 0
OW 0 302 1619 1813 797 207 183 0
VODI 0 0 457 1640 1488 1491 404 0
ODI 0 0 31 419 1032 1948 4032 0
CDI 0 0 3 23 97 626 10938 1771
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 483 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90589 22468 11294 1389 206 44 91 0
OW 0 385 1629 1741 659 244 273 0
VODI 0 31 665 1595 1438 1203 446 0
ODI 0 0 60 701 1282 2319 3252 0
CDI 0 0 20 55 50 506 11436 1678
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 624 95

Date: 2024-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90670 22643 11671 1646 217 30 77 0
OW 0 209 1489 2101 791 268 227 0
VODI 0 0 268 1356 1645 1315 545 0
ODI 0 0 15 180 826 1786 3991 0
CDI 0 0 2 24 144 814 11174 1721
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 602 21
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90670 22476 11498 1486 221 34 87 0
OW 0 348 1472 1998 690 268 293 0
VODI 0 28 423 1389 1470 1103 535 0
ODI 0 0 39 416 1212 2447 4225 4
CDI 0 0 13 18 30 338 10267 1600
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 23 1209 138

Date: 2024-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91348 22688 11816 1392 174 22 59 0
OW 0 108 1713 1879 829 362 251 0
VODI 0 0 217 1434 1205 1238 607 0
ODI 0 0 12 234 772 1542 4291 14
CDI 0 0 0 3 181 854 10042 1633
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 20 1463 65
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91348 22519 11590 1247 170 33 77 0
OW 0 266 1794 1899 782 393 265 0
VODI 0 11 343 1480 1167 1118 626 0
ODI 0 0 26 306 1026 2254 6180 30
CDI 0 0 5 10 16 213 8165 1588
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 1400 94


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