Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2024-05-02

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54863 17636 1407 319 35 16 10 0
OW 0 1179 1375 998 89 53 106 0
VODI 0 368 938 1461 511 364 332 0
ODI 0 205 396 1216 892 758 966 4
CDI 0 537 607 1359 1356 1860 7438 51
VCDI 0 38 185 1155 1032 1419 35262 19672
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54931 18603 1660 464 23 6 4 0
OW 0 1324 1857 2017 385 34 90 0
VODI 0 289 520 1744 1140 409 391 4
ODI 0 310 291 1210 1209 1285 1377 9
CDI 0 101 231 954 1156 3596 10232 52
VCDI 0 6 154 396 205 881 25587 23331
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55109 18232 2159 327 137 19 2 0
OW 0 1303 2432 1095 473 137 43 0
VODI 0 203 1083 1231 868 654 531 0
ODI 0 33 481 807 1006 1097 1941 0
CDI 0 79 275 475 1130 2826 12360 11
VCDI 0 33 179 249 272 383 27830 20963
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55109 18237 2258 395 159 19 2 0
OW 0 1305 2294 1028 442 124 34 0
VODI 0 211 1135 1219 881 669 506 0
ODI 0 18 461 755 956 1139 1938 0
CDI 0 80 270 514 1171 2769 12377 15
VCDI 0 32 191 273 277 396 27850 20959

Date: 2024-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57991 18004 2207 604 26 21 7 0
OW 40 1671 1869 1453 159 38 35 0
VODI 36 549 554 1571 870 420 241 1
ODI 4 187 121 619 898 1212 1348 12
CDI 0 154 100 426 572 3838 9279 99
VCDI 0 10 8 157 253 1359 25182 24263
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57946 17166 1687 381 34 19 7 0
OW 91 2057 1718 1106 136 47 21 0
VODI 28 879 956 1470 527 374 333 2
ODI 6 217 255 884 839 1010 951 20
CDI 0 227 221 696 905 3876 10192 195
VCDI 0 29 22 293 337 1562 24588 24158

Date: 2024-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57091 19335 2134 559 75 25 3 0
OW 0 1107 2291 1245 310 155 109 0
VODI 0 80 977 1258 823 565 500 0
ODI 0 32 209 600 805 1109 1445 8
CDI 0 128 133 521 632 2140 11367 28
VCDI 0 8 70 215 318 653 29655 19750
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57091 18142 1498 428 40 14 4 0
OW 0 1762 1900 948 256 134 81 0
VODI 0 489 1278 1188 562 544 500 0
ODI 0 63 641 761 813 1078 1159 3
CDI 0 147 379 826 978 2267 13930 19
VCDI 0 87 118 247 314 610 27405 19764

Date: 2024-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58411 19321 1853 341 57 53 10 0
OW 0 2005 1983 569 296 137 79 0
VODI 0 132 1307 1262 758 500 346 0
ODI 0 40 270 735 830 1047 1300 3
CDI 0 99 157 508 914 1952 8805 27
VCDI 0 56 233 459 526 892 31051 19144
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58411 17362 1245 185 22 8 1 0
OW 0 2934 1470 407 176 54 47 0
VODI 0 891 1554 1037 547 536 320 0
ODI 0 191 848 979 848 1110 1300 9
CDI 0 157 427 820 1270 2082 12546 32
VCDI 0 118 259 446 518 791 27377 19133


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