Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2024-01-04

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60553 23704 1114 300 24 4 2 0
OW 0 1845 1298 571 145 35 11 0
VODI 0 467 1130 1118 367 132 87 0
ODI 0 66 424 701 655 847 791 0
CDI 0 15 329 559 669 1339 3038 34
VCDI 0 3 337 550 678 3208 36421 14897
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62828 20117 2122 493 91 7 0 0
OW 0 1554 1547 608 209 43 4 0
VODI 0 423 826 1069 495 195 51 0
ODI 0 117 397 775 594 567 210 0
CDI 0 16 353 1164 1092 1913 2085 39
VCDI 0 0 81 570 918 4546 34944 15405
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58660 23640 2128 371 62 26 0 0
OW 0 478 1788 766 344 212 3 0
VODI 0 122 906 800 646 481 35 0
ODI 0 7 277 613 536 696 247 0
CDI 0 0 117 536 962 1592 4206 47
VCDI 0 0 159 529 522 2576 34946 18432
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58660 23633 2166 436 59 31 0 0
OW 0 486 1876 762 390 179 3 0
VODI 0 120 783 779 603 524 33 0
ODI 0 8 281 571 520 619 266 0
CDI 0 0 124 521 965 1604 4212 39
VCDI 0 0 145 546 535 2626 34923 18440

Date: 2024-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56296 22283 2969 344 120 26 0 0
OW 0 493 1996 699 302 133 13 0
VODI 0 45 840 938 623 569 323 14
ODI 0 3 265 481 365 725 1065 34
CDI 0 0 212 436 305 1054 5459 329
VCDI 0 0 86 226 281 880 23739 33497
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56296 21936 2658 370 185 74 0 0
OW 0 560 1574 562 325 205 35 0
VODI 0 204 1038 583 401 478 336 11
ODI 0 91 460 583 340 501 818 62
CDI 0 33 316 569 364 1072 4778 597
VCDI 0 0 322 457 381 1057 24632 33204

Date: 2024-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55655 22515 1908 427 93 10 0 0
OW 0 767 1552 970 239 60 17 0
VODI 0 209 1066 1137 662 470 112 9
ODI 0 40 370 538 531 1048 622 44
CDI 0 0 217 352 479 1093 4265 144
VCDI 0 0 37 88 404 1770 36922 21626
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55655 21709 1638 472 110 27 0 0
OW 0 1181 1181 830 278 129 21 0
VODI 0 413 1149 856 503 549 162 1
ODI 0 135 560 622 428 647 677 44
CDI 0 59 450 547 617 1196 4729 183
VCDI 0 34 172 185 472 1903 36349 21595

Date: 2024-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54378 21951 1652 419 196 64 0 0
OW 0 829 1587 796 363 168 3 0
VODI 0 242 1062 931 794 624 125 0
ODI 0 82 403 474 617 1047 995 1
CDI 0 55 298 363 533 1245 5145 35
VCDI 0 6 65 73 123 425 27447 32852
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54378 21002 1772 642 299 129 2 0
OW 0 1063 1108 667 503 380 66 0
VODI 0 600 930 642 549 664 495 0
ODI 0 305 557 429 447 627 1059 9
CDI 0 109 515 473 615 1099 4459 54
VCDI 0 86 185 203 213 674 27634 32825


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