Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2023-12-14

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65312 22734 2000 446 81 61 8 0
OW 0 802 1170 924 233 101 20 0
VODI 0 189 768 1029 712 363 143 0
ODI 0 57 237 583 646 901 453 0
CDI 0 63 202 440 537 1510 3463 47
VCDI 0 70 68 202 312 2173 33207 16201
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62807 23244 2033 418 107 17 2 0
OW 0 982 2198 851 459 81 1 0
VODI 0 533 1001 1229 984 614 28 0
ODI 0 230 368 484 806 1345 290 0
CDI 0 76 476 495 701 2811 3060 0
VCDI 0 0 311 484 581 5575 31971 10815
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63338 22730 1859 264 36 7 2 0
OW 0 1078 2276 722 120 63 16 0
VODI 0 567 1557 1507 621 294 88 0
ODI 0 224 498 941 845 834 360 0
CDI 0 125 632 912 1004 1778 4463 0
VCDI 0 39 232 565 519 1782 33816 11754
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63338 22630 1857 274 37 6 2 0
OW 0 1162 2254 690 120 64 14 0
VODI 0 582 1544 1507 621 304 86 0
ODI 0 256 557 1028 891 882 381 0
CDI 0 102 604 864 965 1708 4443 0
VCDI 0 31 238 548 511 1794 33819 11754

Date: 2023-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64897 22542 1240 180 5 6 0 0
OW 0 2166 1816 776 80 15 1 0
VODI 0 446 1365 2000 666 245 91 0
ODI 0 117 254 1059 839 1095 573 8
CDI 0 201 239 1145 1103 1984 4042 77
VCDI 0 32 86 317 554 2398 23903 19905
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64897 21582 1166 217 5 7 0 0
OW 0 1983 934 520 106 44 21 0
VODI 0 1075 1204 1052 582 655 222 0
ODI 0 368 867 1353 714 925 751 9
CDI 0 352 601 1610 1051 1541 3556 79
VCDI 0 144 228 725 789 2571 24060 19902

Date: 2023-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63500 23570 1110 302 23 1 0 0
OW 0 1560 1485 893 128 44 1 0
VODI 0 348 1101 1677 690 464 108 0
ODI 0 54 434 1229 1072 1292 779 2
CDI 0 23 225 797 1067 1963 3777 47
VCDI 0 1 99 501 656 1949 29670 15826
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63500 22078 928 325 17 1 0 0
OW 0 1966 917 637 93 19 0 0
VODI 0 1031 1067 1236 416 407 107 0
ODI 0 265 785 1318 1134 1161 792 0
CDI 0 154 506 1102 1045 1843 3387 28
VCDI 0 62 251 781 931 2282 30049 15847

Date: 2023-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60432 24224 2276 461 132 52 0 0
OW 0 875 1600 584 351 200 4 0
VODI 0 171 784 940 840 884 139 0
ODI 0 47 282 506 874 2018 748 0
CDI 0 8 144 355 934 3361 5356 10
VCDI 0 0 38 259 574 2161 28083 17761
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60432 23143 1860 441 229 55 0 0
OW 0 1480 1163 414 299 248 0 0
VODI 0 498 1159 731 667 631 41 0
ODI 0 106 504 701 888 2111 876 0
CDI 0 54 299 450 816 2677 3364 9
VCDI 0 44 139 368 806 2954 30049 17762


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