Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2023-11-23
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2023-11-17:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
69100 |
25461 |
1645 |
283 |
189 |
52 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
824 |
1193 |
742 |
414 |
298 |
78 |
1 |
| VODI |
0 |
58 |
544 |
675 |
683 |
513 |
241 |
13 |
| ODI |
0 |
10 |
144 |
258 |
498 |
916 |
590 |
19 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
42 |
245 |
480 |
1600 |
3460 |
101 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
27 |
98 |
578 |
22625 |
23765 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-11-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
67109 |
21500 |
4185 |
1157 |
131 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
401 |
1449 |
997 |
323 |
76 |
56 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
35 |
689 |
1486 |
764 |
228 |
234 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
84 |
749 |
779 |
742 |
565 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
114 |
264 |
425 |
1814 |
4223 |
31 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
45 |
119 |
149 |
1625 |
25073 |
20843 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-11-23:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
68391 |
20477 |
4140 |
534 |
251 |
88 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
793 |
1669 |
404 |
312 |
226 |
19 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
115 |
1368 |
852 |
691 |
535 |
193 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
9 |
458 |
582 |
891 |
789 |
275 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
11 |
399 |
302 |
688 |
2737 |
2317 |
27 |
| VCDI |
0 |
8 |
403 |
401 |
434 |
1689 |
24623 |
20367 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
68391 |
20572 |
4237 |
556 |
252 |
101 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
694 |
1655 |
401 |
329 |
215 |
17 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
119 |
1287 |
838 |
692 |
550 |
212 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
8 |
446 |
553 |
891 |
822 |
300 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
9 |
401 |
318 |
675 |
2712 |
2243 |
25 |
| VCDI |
0 |
11 |
411 |
409 |
428 |
1664 |
24655 |
20369 |
|
Date: 2023-11-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
65564 |
24341 |
2014 |
1116 |
254 |
155 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1293 |
1868 |
1477 |
271 |
164 |
102 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
176 |
744 |
1505 |
764 |
270 |
181 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
163 |
170 |
796 |
1060 |
829 |
417 |
2 |
| CDI |
0 |
271 |
202 |
636 |
1163 |
1937 |
4098 |
32 |
| VCDI |
0 |
60 |
177 |
315 |
340 |
2225 |
25029 |
16286 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
65564 |
23819 |
1858 |
1035 |
262 |
156 |
5 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1179 |
1041 |
741 |
235 |
233 |
109 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
536 |
979 |
1211 |
438 |
346 |
424 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
137 |
593 |
950 |
811 |
470 |
395 |
4 |
| CDI |
0 |
264 |
332 |
1283 |
1443 |
1631 |
2552 |
29 |
| VCDI |
0 |
369 |
372 |
625 |
663 |
2744 |
26343 |
16287 |
|
Date: 2023-11-29:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
65722 |
22482 |
3393 |
638 |
318 |
39 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1832 |
1778 |
639 |
376 |
190 |
72 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
420 |
1161 |
1059 |
744 |
424 |
162 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
84 |
426 |
757 |
824 |
1159 |
842 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
58 |
527 |
592 |
1121 |
2233 |
4800 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
107 |
405 |
332 |
358 |
1113 |
24309 |
16972 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
65722 |
21542 |
2988 |
587 |
292 |
50 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1505 |
1320 |
507 |
387 |
349 |
124 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1069 |
1066 |
771 |
495 |
560 |
503 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
416 |
749 |
616 |
652 |
700 |
554 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
263 |
825 |
1094 |
1430 |
2134 |
3029 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
188 |
742 |
442 |
485 |
1365 |
25975 |
16972 |
|
Date: 2023-12-01:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
65584 |
22523 |
2717 |
665 |
236 |
72 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1552 |
1702 |
673 |
477 |
445 |
18 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
354 |
1047 |
734 |
808 |
846 |
133 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
71 |
281 |
412 |
661 |
1470 |
627 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
15 |
261 |
250 |
656 |
2654 |
3607 |
72 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
193 |
174 |
367 |
2126 |
26981 |
17004 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
65584 |
20656 |
2313 |
549 |
210 |
101 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1649 |
1223 |
558 |
408 |
421 |
61 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1308 |
854 |
515 |
682 |
1062 |
516 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
601 |
690 |
380 |
438 |
1038 |
821 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
301 |
791 |
692 |
1088 |
2892 |
3838 |
25 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
330 |
214 |
379 |
2099 |
26130 |
17051 |
|
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