Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2023-11-16

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75469 24595 1441 457 74 29 0 0
OW 0 1136 1072 932 334 193 106 0
VODI 0 292 570 980 645 435 411 0
ODI 0 17 204 443 352 742 554 1
CDI 0 0 27 293 462 1364 3167 9
VCDI 0 0 0 25 103 2765 24187 14582
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71905 25090 1748 385 201 98 7 0
OW 0 913 1029 645 445 398 48 0
VODI 0 103 542 804 855 906 208 0
ODI 0 7 71 311 461 1309 591 0
CDI 0 3 8 129 385 1460 3374 15
VCDI 0 0 0 6 20 1648 20656 21684
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70302 24675 2257 255 94 45 7 0
OW 0 535 1301 744 345 396 40 0
VODI 0 69 660 737 814 385 189 0
ODI 0 10 389 369 742 867 516 7
CDI 0 0 106 405 652 1066 3649 34
VCDI 0 0 0 26 90 1267 26130 18293
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70302 24740 2318 323 91 44 7 0
OW 0 472 1221 671 360 379 45 0
VODI 0 68 657 724 789 386 203 0
ODI 0 9 406 384 736 840 517 8
CDI 0 0 110 405 658 1085 3725 30
VCDI 0 0 1 29 103 1292 26034 18296

Date: 2023-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66555 22214 3523 1987 178 17 2 0
OW 0 281 1176 1206 456 84 44 0
VODI 0 10 311 1440 1097 254 294 0
ODI 0 0 31 473 765 971 616 0
CDI 0 0 37 239 390 2156 3780 48
VCDI 0 0 4 84 157 1793 22059 23736
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66555 21910 3307 2118 279 5 2 0
OW 0 549 906 1013 592 138 143 0
VODI 0 46 671 1080 674 229 238 0
ODI 0 0 89 689 621 732 539 0
CDI 0 0 92 334 619 2022 3900 136
VCDI 0 0 17 195 258 2149 21973 23648

Date: 2023-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69013 19878 4244 515 281 72 5 0
OW 0 695 1553 511 252 205 81 0
VODI 0 46 1272 946 655 503 231 0
ODI 0 5 311 609 687 1030 344 5
CDI 0 9 197 190 336 1866 3927 76
VCDI 0 5 209 153 141 1526 23365 22519
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69013 19256 3923 625 320 96 1 0
OW 0 1021 1301 471 318 317 193 0
VODI 0 313 1324 604 423 384 179 0
ODI 0 25 634 603 570 856 408 6
CDI 0 8 299 396 539 1912 3322 120
VCDI 0 15 305 225 182 1637 23850 22474

Date: 2023-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68594 20212 4295 346 215 122 0 0
OW 0 932 1634 496 159 256 34 0
VODI 0 284 1282 1006 561 274 280 0
ODI 0 13 702 797 724 342 304 0
CDI 0 0 590 620 1243 2327 1789 21
VCDI 0 0 436 403 623 1936 24685 19931
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68594 19227 4093 357 197 140 0 0
OW 0 1301 1176 489 240 363 229 0
VODI 0 694 1356 702 470 177 222 0
ODI 0 190 896 887 630 462 320 0
CDI 0 28 664 779 1289 2134 1441 11
VCDI 0 1 754 454 699 1981 24880 19941


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