Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2023-11-02
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2023-10-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
88127 |
19401 |
1843 |
1412 |
603 |
72 |
13 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1344 |
1221 |
2164 |
950 |
236 |
28 |
0 |
| VODI |
80 |
219 |
291 |
1235 |
1327 |
188 |
190 |
0 |
| ODI |
14 |
184 |
100 |
710 |
612 |
363 |
396 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
118 |
78 |
349 |
501 |
976 |
2959 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
2 |
2 |
273 |
336 |
1566 |
18969 |
9168 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-10-31:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
81406 |
22619 |
2296 |
1151 |
234 |
166 |
28 |
2 |
| OW |
0 |
578 |
918 |
1083 |
713 |
384 |
6 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
52 |
297 |
1127 |
1417 |
776 |
116 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
48 |
695 |
919 |
1312 |
347 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
15 |
20 |
351 |
614 |
3245 |
2449 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
85 |
435 |
522 |
535 |
2186 |
18411 |
11062 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-11-02:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
78970 |
24329 |
2766 |
949 |
189 |
225 |
23 |
7 |
| OW |
0 |
517 |
1166 |
946 |
497 |
366 |
23 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
32 |
382 |
834 |
984 |
747 |
137 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
3 |
94 |
414 |
1121 |
1184 |
331 |
2 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
29 |
225 |
781 |
2084 |
1481 |
14 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
337 |
1295 |
3489 |
20231 |
11416 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
78948 |
24301 |
2786 |
969 |
209 |
264 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
505 |
1161 |
967 |
538 |
374 |
20 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
45 |
374 |
834 |
1019 |
709 |
133 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
2 |
82 |
409 |
1067 |
1320 |
340 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
30 |
184 |
737 |
1904 |
1534 |
15 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
332 |
1278 |
3522 |
20137 |
11416 |
|
Date: 2023-11-06:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80778 |
21024 |
2507 |
505 |
242 |
123 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
533 |
1518 |
765 |
453 |
360 |
10 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
6 |
571 |
673 |
522 |
687 |
82 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
107 |
274 |
397 |
1014 |
519 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
38 |
171 |
315 |
1221 |
3301 |
12 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
92 |
143 |
2584 |
18037 |
18880 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80778 |
20876 |
2605 |
521 |
312 |
137 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
591 |
1160 |
682 |
535 |
689 |
32 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
92 |
633 |
575 |
377 |
680 |
360 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
4 |
233 |
338 |
305 |
903 |
852 |
3 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
100 |
242 |
355 |
991 |
4259 |
15 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
11 |
122 |
188 |
2589 |
16446 |
18875 |
|
Date: 2023-11-08:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
75846 |
25211 |
1864 |
658 |
162 |
62 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
954 |
1212 |
947 |
422 |
192 |
160 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
37 |
418 |
1007 |
604 |
394 |
235 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
89 |
427 |
480 |
791 |
460 |
4 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
18 |
276 |
355 |
1403 |
3818 |
14 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
55 |
87 |
2518 |
23879 |
13405 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
75846 |
25003 |
1903 |
723 |
240 |
103 |
15 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1028 |
841 |
811 |
507 |
345 |
244 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
166 |
644 |
780 |
521 |
493 |
444 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
5 |
195 |
630 |
415 |
822 |
954 |
5 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
18 |
349 |
303 |
1131 |
4827 |
149 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
77 |
124 |
2466 |
22071 |
13269 |
|
Date: 2023-11-10:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
75469 |
24595 |
1441 |
457 |
74 |
29 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1136 |
1072 |
932 |
334 |
193 |
106 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
292 |
570 |
980 |
645 |
435 |
411 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
17 |
204 |
443 |
352 |
742 |
554 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
27 |
293 |
462 |
1364 |
3167 |
9 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
103 |
2765 |
24187 |
14582 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
75469 |
24396 |
1469 |
476 |
146 |
97 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1153 |
810 |
820 |
354 |
347 |
228 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
424 |
684 |
954 |
665 |
434 |
582 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
63 |
296 |
491 |
319 |
655 |
838 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
4 |
55 |
347 |
350 |
1150 |
3870 |
129 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
42 |
136 |
2845 |
22905 |
14463 |
|
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