Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2023-10-26
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2023-10-20:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
95717 |
20037 |
1905 |
714 |
103 |
5 |
7 |
7 |
| OW |
215 |
508 |
824 |
531 |
230 |
100 |
4 |
1 |
| VODI |
179 |
192 |
446 |
550 |
376 |
333 |
39 |
1 |
| ODI |
5 |
88 |
187 |
341 |
415 |
637 |
180 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
103 |
237 |
473 |
1549 |
2017 |
1 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
14 |
65 |
161 |
1358 |
15290 |
12474 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-10-24:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
91990 |
21099 |
1952 |
608 |
705 |
284 |
18 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
821 |
1439 |
741 |
577 |
378 |
64 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
138 |
561 |
821 |
496 |
427 |
224 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
153 |
266 |
573 |
640 |
542 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
34 |
125 |
385 |
1247 |
3226 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
15 |
5 |
63 |
782 |
17074 |
10147 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-10-26:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
88879 |
20196 |
2780 |
1764 |
205 |
60 |
15 |
0 |
| OW |
83 |
775 |
1311 |
1776 |
704 |
253 |
20 |
0 |
| VODI |
11 |
219 |
341 |
1365 |
731 |
303 |
178 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
104 |
145 |
584 |
473 |
349 |
422 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
4 |
63 |
335 |
577 |
1062 |
3139 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
215 |
282 |
1628 |
18165 |
9104 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
88919 |
20324 |
2980 |
2134 |
432 |
110 |
4 |
0 |
| OW |
17 |
707 |
1136 |
1459 |
560 |
172 |
8 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
138 |
310 |
1349 |
669 |
297 |
178 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
103 |
153 |
522 |
442 |
336 |
405 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
3 |
59 |
336 |
595 |
1104 |
3254 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
223 |
274 |
1599 |
18053 |
9104 |
|
Date: 2023-10-30:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
82914 |
21199 |
2394 |
1338 |
256 |
156 |
30 |
2 |
| OW |
0 |
608 |
778 |
1262 |
477 |
542 |
25 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
31 |
200 |
1464 |
1081 |
1140 |
117 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
3 |
68 |
639 |
1214 |
2189 |
362 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
11 |
205 |
219 |
797 |
2882 |
2361 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
89 |
222 |
384 |
436 |
1984 |
18130 |
10411 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
82870 |
20318 |
2360 |
1555 |
340 |
442 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
7 |
1315 |
657 |
1345 |
885 |
1357 |
21 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
146 |
237 |
905 |
1162 |
1999 |
109 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
38 |
145 |
705 |
837 |
1012 |
286 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
23 |
295 |
372 |
540 |
2105 |
2558 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
86 |
167 |
403 |
489 |
1976 |
17987 |
10411 |
|
Date: 2023-11-01:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80706 |
23075 |
2192 |
1251 |
206 |
170 |
23 |
7 |
| OW |
0 |
777 |
973 |
1091 |
391 |
303 |
9 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
60 |
404 |
1210 |
1173 |
665 |
103 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
67 |
708 |
984 |
1052 |
351 |
2 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
353 |
577 |
2351 |
2014 |
26 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
75 |
839 |
943 |
3169 |
19503 |
10813 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80638 |
21868 |
1998 |
1071 |
203 |
211 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
46 |
1704 |
1022 |
1190 |
932 |
588 |
20 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
255 |
382 |
864 |
897 |
2663 |
153 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
51 |
161 |
686 |
608 |
967 |
316 |
3 |
| CDI |
0 |
3 |
86 |
834 |
834 |
1511 |
2868 |
80 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
65 |
791 |
787 |
1768 |
18584 |
10758 |
|
Date: 2023-11-03:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80219 |
23291 |
2506 |
734 |
225 |
208 |
23 |
12 |
| OW |
0 |
454 |
1375 |
790 |
466 |
364 |
73 |
1 |
| VODI |
0 |
26 |
366 |
884 |
684 |
697 |
173 |
2 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
60 |
584 |
784 |
1277 |
325 |
2 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
24 |
240 |
710 |
2229 |
1400 |
5 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
607 |
4225 |
19624 |
12936 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80197 |
22208 |
2019 |
593 |
162 |
199 |
8 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1309 |
1459 |
804 |
609 |
608 |
59 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
191 |
546 |
1023 |
618 |
1952 |
299 |
1 |
| ODI |
0 |
35 |
200 |
471 |
601 |
1347 |
327 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
103 |
335 |
800 |
1965 |
1988 |
9 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
21 |
676 |
2908 |
18885 |
12932 |
|
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