Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2023-10-19
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2023-10-13:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
102847 |
15364 |
2112 |
718 |
129 |
16 |
5 |
8 |
| OW |
0 |
352 |
775 |
570 |
297 |
48 |
15 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
80 |
339 |
579 |
605 |
374 |
52 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
11 |
231 |
288 |
264 |
515 |
156 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
262 |
246 |
238 |
860 |
910 |
5 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
25 |
92 |
952 |
15892 |
12387 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-10-17:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
102242 |
16318 |
1057 |
531 |
57 |
12 |
12 |
0 |
| OW |
414 |
474 |
722 |
737 |
126 |
24 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
187 |
123 |
301 |
832 |
282 |
161 |
29 |
0 |
| ODI |
56 |
58 |
127 |
393 |
401 |
315 |
121 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
34 |
89 |
609 |
493 |
785 |
1113 |
12 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
114 |
405 |
2471 |
15949 |
10430 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-10-19:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
99160 |
18214 |
1448 |
475 |
62 |
14 |
5 |
8 |
| OW |
411 |
309 |
644 |
613 |
262 |
69 |
6 |
0 |
| VODI |
234 |
176 |
252 |
488 |
479 |
243 |
35 |
0 |
| ODI |
73 |
52 |
215 |
240 |
469 |
469 |
102 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
2 |
174 |
226 |
698 |
1574 |
1683 |
1 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
36 |
76 |
182 |
2371 |
15755 |
10615 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
99052 |
18254 |
1479 |
521 |
68 |
11 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
364 |
281 |
614 |
572 |
231 |
62 |
7 |
0 |
| VODI |
264 |
176 |
256 |
473 |
516 |
236 |
23 |
0 |
| ODI |
126 |
27 |
213 |
234 |
471 |
486 |
102 |
0 |
| CDI |
6 |
2 |
171 |
221 |
691 |
1646 |
1781 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
32 |
75 |
169 |
2295 |
15643 |
10615 |
|
Date: 2023-10-23:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
93513 |
20055 |
2459 |
506 |
426 |
120 |
19 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
935 |
1421 |
886 |
395 |
240 |
39 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
32 |
612 |
879 |
653 |
402 |
190 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
177 |
362 |
657 |
859 |
610 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
17 |
82 |
214 |
1043 |
3024 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
15 |
9 |
51 |
763 |
16828 |
10127 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
93464 |
19815 |
2323 |
563 |
562 |
109 |
7 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
795 |
791 |
387 |
225 |
200 |
24 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
219 |
782 |
670 |
277 |
242 |
92 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
108 |
355 |
615 |
425 |
378 |
267 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
67 |
409 |
435 |
730 |
1195 |
1785 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
31 |
50 |
175 |
1274 |
18495 |
10127 |
|
Date: 2023-10-25:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
89968 |
21619 |
2180 |
1275 |
390 |
58 |
18 |
0 |
| OW |
14 |
704 |
1219 |
1457 |
832 |
293 |
39 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
131 |
376 |
1127 |
540 |
269 |
219 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
6 |
118 |
532 |
501 |
436 |
449 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
26 |
291 |
589 |
1252 |
2878 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
113 |
238 |
1220 |
18129 |
9114 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
89915 |
20972 |
2005 |
1522 |
616 |
91 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
30 |
1024 |
689 |
686 |
423 |
236 |
30 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
351 |
740 |
738 |
354 |
186 |
101 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
59 |
267 |
610 |
364 |
257 |
272 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
31 |
214 |
1100 |
884 |
882 |
2141 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
101 |
447 |
1865 |
19148 |
9114 |
|
Date: 2023-10-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
88127 |
19401 |
1843 |
1412 |
603 |
72 |
13 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1344 |
1221 |
2164 |
950 |
236 |
28 |
0 |
| VODI |
80 |
219 |
291 |
1235 |
1327 |
188 |
190 |
0 |
| ODI |
14 |
184 |
100 |
710 |
612 |
363 |
396 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
118 |
78 |
349 |
501 |
976 |
2959 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
2 |
2 |
273 |
336 |
1566 |
18969 |
9168 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
88090 |
19382 |
1832 |
1802 |
1124 |
135 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
888 |
796 |
1092 |
889 |
147 |
5 |
0 |
| VODI |
92 |
676 |
455 |
1025 |
760 |
194 |
141 |
0 |
| ODI |
2 |
182 |
218 |
632 |
325 |
159 |
263 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
113 |
187 |
858 |
575 |
824 |
1399 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
4 |
45 |
705 |
655 |
1922 |
20705 |
9168 |
|
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