Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2023-10-12
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2023-10-06:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
99911 |
18091 |
2072 |
1349 |
407 |
192 |
15 |
8 |
| OW |
0 |
761 |
747 |
522 |
377 |
152 |
5 |
1 |
| VODI |
0 |
129 |
686 |
467 |
315 |
237 |
24 |
1 |
| ODI |
0 |
27 |
192 |
366 |
225 |
342 |
45 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
17 |
103 |
424 |
387 |
1330 |
621 |
63 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
39 |
24 |
147 |
2589 |
12508 |
12701 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-10-10:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
100614 |
16888 |
2462 |
1210 |
191 |
139 |
4 |
8 |
| OW |
0 |
459 |
940 |
624 |
279 |
240 |
25 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
16 |
338 |
661 |
403 |
403 |
98 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
2 |
161 |
224 |
296 |
363 |
204 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
240 |
191 |
252 |
656 |
1414 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
21 |
98 |
106 |
813 |
16219 |
11358 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-10-12:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
102242 |
16351 |
1843 |
713 |
69 |
28 |
5 |
8 |
| OW |
0 |
525 |
712 |
551 |
203 |
160 |
31 |
1 |
| VODI |
0 |
72 |
281 |
628 |
415 |
454 |
181 |
1 |
| ODI |
0 |
33 |
165 |
282 |
268 |
391 |
282 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
7 |
209 |
293 |
252 |
672 |
1127 |
1 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
120 |
122 |
825 |
16263 |
11831 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
102176 |
16431 |
1886 |
745 |
76 |
29 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
432 |
670 |
499 |
169 |
151 |
22 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
77 |
293 |
594 |
435 |
468 |
203 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
28 |
179 |
289 |
270 |
364 |
312 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
6 |
169 |
305 |
257 |
635 |
1103 |
5 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
12 |
127 |
122 |
878 |
16223 |
11825 |
|
Date: 2023-10-16:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
102744 |
15967 |
1253 |
444 |
63 |
10 |
12 |
0 |
| OW |
274 |
641 |
890 |
575 |
140 |
19 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
167 |
190 |
389 |
811 |
421 |
167 |
31 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
25 |
123 |
391 |
421 |
331 |
128 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
3 |
161 |
485 |
499 |
943 |
887 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
166 |
366 |
2664 |
16480 |
9335 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
102592 |
15800 |
1198 |
466 |
47 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
339 |
463 |
571 |
360 |
185 |
36 |
2 |
0 |
| VODI |
169 |
269 |
430 |
466 |
315 |
321 |
36 |
0 |
| ODI |
7 |
201 |
233 |
445 |
232 |
242 |
95 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
89 |
331 |
606 |
424 |
734 |
589 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
52 |
507 |
703 |
2785 |
16780 |
9335 |
|
Date: 2023-10-18:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
100003 |
17703 |
1510 |
513 |
187 |
12 |
5 |
8 |
| OW |
404 |
269 |
606 |
506 |
415 |
129 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
196 |
112 |
265 |
349 |
471 |
358 |
35 |
0 |
| ODI |
91 |
22 |
165 |
194 |
286 |
700 |
111 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
2 |
134 |
331 |
435 |
1354 |
1224 |
1 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
23 |
212 |
2314 |
16404 |
10557 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
99938 |
17430 |
1346 |
469 |
139 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
237 |
396 |
512 |
323 |
274 |
98 |
13 |
0 |
| VODI |
367 |
146 |
401 |
378 |
339 |
330 |
44 |
0 |
| ODI |
84 |
88 |
170 |
269 |
349 |
468 |
162 |
0 |
| CDI |
2 |
34 |
232 |
295 |
447 |
977 |
1183 |
1 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
18 |
158 |
454 |
2985 |
16349 |
10556 |
|
Date: 2023-10-20:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
95717 |
20037 |
1905 |
714 |
103 |
5 |
7 |
7 |
| OW |
215 |
508 |
824 |
531 |
230 |
100 |
4 |
1 |
| VODI |
179 |
192 |
446 |
550 |
376 |
333 |
39 |
1 |
| ODI |
5 |
88 |
187 |
341 |
415 |
637 |
180 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
103 |
237 |
473 |
1549 |
2017 |
1 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
14 |
65 |
161 |
1358 |
15290 |
12474 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
95591 |
20128 |
1940 |
854 |
192 |
57 |
5 |
0 |
| OW |
165 |
426 |
580 |
380 |
238 |
125 |
20 |
0 |
| VODI |
278 |
191 |
535 |
392 |
235 |
258 |
133 |
0 |
| ODI |
18 |
65 |
261 |
272 |
278 |
491 |
340 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
99 |
273 |
374 |
910 |
2033 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
60 |
245 |
440 |
2133 |
14980 |
12473 |
|
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