Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2023-10-05

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102410 17172 2754 1053 111 27 14 8
OW 0 534 897 1045 206 67 35 0
VODI 0 62 420 967 515 322 72 0
ODI 0 16 69 415 729 647 194 1
CDI 0 3 27 172 503 1016 1486 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 289 623 10356 13370
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101901 18070 1787 1096 150 21 26 3
OW 0 845 794 452 129 64 25 1
VODI 0 91 539 701 201 86 45 1
ODI 0 9 154 432 257 169 100 1
CDI 0 0 112 358 312 741 992 1
VCDI 0 0 15 523 681 2112 11260 13363
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101230 17776 1828 1008 372 158 19 8
OW 0 759 727 514 225 207 1 1
VODI 0 81 664 474 319 224 24 1
ODI 0 8 135 362 284 359 71 1
CDI 0 0 55 318 420 1253 640 1
VCDI 0 0 0 4 105 3093 11933 12958
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101161 17776 1855 998 375 159 17 0
OW 0 741 687 510 205 184 0 0
VODI 0 87 669 516 328 239 21 0
ODI 0 8 121 342 316 366 82 0
CDI 0 0 57 303 395 1262 658 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 106 3070 11896 12957

Date: 2023-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101525 15919 2432 931 374 268 6 8
OW 0 486 1210 588 304 284 22 0
VODI 0 14 332 461 450 536 59 0
ODI 0 0 124 122 247 628 139 0
CDI 0 0 171 238 267 955 1604 0
VCDI 0 0 4 148 192 1214 15735 10623
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101456 15573 2230 909 407 287 11 0
OW 0 695 894 438 284 366 32 0
VODI 0 121 504 404 342 564 62 0
ODI 0 14 253 192 176 484 109 0
CDI 0 4 358 316 298 676 1117 0
VCDI 0 0 32 223 299 1492 16223 10623

Date: 2023-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101991 16340 1880 985 125 44 8 8
OW 0 564 703 665 247 158 32 1
VODI 0 60 293 801 431 291 96 1
ODI 0 29 154 391 287 264 245 1
CDI 0 34 218 302 293 624 1190 1
VCDI 0 0 23 93 129 796 16043 11779
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101923 15208 1587 1004 153 78 2 0
OW 0 1128 483 489 266 164 24 0
VODI 0 417 345 768 344 233 108 0
ODI 0 166 238 368 272 258 168 0
CDI 0 96 511 348 214 451 817 0
VCDI 0 0 104 232 263 988 16472 11778

Date: 2023-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102847 15364 2112 718 129 16 5 8
OW 0 352 775 570 297 48 15 0
VODI 0 80 339 579 605 374 52 0
ODI 0 11 231 288 264 515 156 0
CDI 0 0 262 246 238 860 910 5
VCDI 0 0 1 25 92 952 15892 12387
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102776 13810 1237 619 156 23 2 0
OW 0 1047 804 391 226 76 4 0
VODI 0 567 549 421 423 325 16 0
ODI 0 250 374 295 269 477 155 0
CDI 0 124 657 508 311 655 564 0
VCDI 0 0 96 164 240 1204 16261 12392


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