Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2023-09-28

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101787 17896 3549 1449 378 42 14 1
OW 0 288 946 1372 809 124 8 0
VODI 0 1 145 647 1085 925 79 0
ODI 0 0 17 92 694 1290 349 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 410 2006 4167 645
VCDI 0 0 0 26 117 547 10330 6316
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102148 16114 4533 1199 205 91 6 8
OW 0 100 1214 804 386 110 4 0
VODI 0 3 299 791 903 638 52 0
ODI 0 0 33 240 864 1451 218 1
CDI 0 0 0 31 373 1498 1825 21
VCDI 0 0 0 1 37 207 9483 12729
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102167 17313 2825 1087 160 42 10 8
OW 0 509 890 1068 193 68 27 0
VODI 0 18 387 1132 595 339 56 0
ODI 0 0 45 476 947 770 203 1
CDI 0 0 4 95 473 1276 1821 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 208 528 9966 12913
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102101 17352 2877 1122 149 36 8 0
OW 0 465 887 1072 198 58 24 0
VODI 0 9 308 1175 670 398 63 0
ODI 0 0 45 402 874 770 181 0
CDI 0 0 3 87 465 1194 1788 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 212 555 10007 12913

Date: 2023-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102268 18200 1801 908 124 14 11 3
OW 0 437 929 732 136 69 31 1
VODI 0 32 349 834 253 119 63 1
ODI 0 0 104 417 243 193 121 1
CDI 0 0 59 371 351 674 905 2
VCDI 0 0 10 478 824 2403 11353 12796
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102199 17877 1834 974 130 15 2 0
OW 0 633 766 843 229 117 45 0
VODI 0 75 368 984 374 191 163 0
ODI 0 41 119 542 320 315 207 0
CDI 0 23 119 320 641 936 920 1
VCDI 0 0 44 60 236 1882 11129 12794

Date: 2023-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102009 17294 2076 1063 203 118 14 8
OW 0 694 853 414 216 145 7 1
VODI 0 58 633 552 303 146 22 1
ODI 0 0 140 409 305 250 49 1
CDI 0 0 75 339 377 1214 602 1
VCDI 0 0 0 3 265 2787 11841 13132
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101940 16808 2127 1128 252 148 19 0
OW 0 906 576 472 277 223 60 0
VODI 0 265 625 410 337 395 47 0
ODI 0 40 274 387 278 706 133 0
CDI 0 15 155 359 339 1610 903 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 184 1562 11363 13131

Date: 2023-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99911 18091 2072 1349 407 192 15 8
OW 0 761 747 522 377 152 5 1
VODI 0 129 686 467 315 237 24 1
ODI 0 27 192 366 225 342 45 1
CDI 0 17 103 424 387 1330 621 63
VCDI 0 0 39 24 147 2589 12508 12701
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99842 17658 2068 1359 456 221 12 0
OW 0 901 767 592 373 179 63 0
VODI 0 246 484 397 356 435 65 0
ODI 0 131 238 349 187 652 57 0
CDI 0 77 236 415 345 1934 697 0
VCDI 0 0 26 30 140 1408 12310 12762


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