Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2023-09-21

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103437 17051 3585 964 293 8 11 3
OW 0 524 1325 1771 614 172 28 0
VODI 0 63 194 1171 1993 1326 277 0
ODI 0 2 1 230 804 2389 3586 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 114 234 4581 3623
VCDI 0 0 0 8 18 49 3538 4587
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104016 17159 2874 1389 252 6 14 1
OW 0 413 840 1930 346 32 14 0
VODI 0 24 117 1322 1060 484 93 0
ODI 0 0 16 499 985 903 393 0
CDI 0 0 0 150 656 1538 4174 1719
VCDI 0 0 0 16 84 696 8362 6043
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103487 16696 3442 1372 247 15 14 1
OW 0 338 1064 1464 570 114 3 0
VODI 0 5 122 733 1073 933 108 0
ODI 0 0 19 163 708 1352 348 0
CDI 0 0 0 108 370 1871 4235 1686
VCDI 0 0 0 20 111 736 8865 6227
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103418 16757 3416 1407 229 13 3 0
OW 0 268 1055 1476 570 134 5 0
VODI 0 4 135 690 1085 909 116 0
ODI 0 0 9 162 677 1355 246 0
CDI 0 0 0 89 391 1947 3826 1334
VCDI 0 0 0 27 116 662 9358 6579

Date: 2023-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102504 15960 5213 926 213 75 6 8
OW 0 93 1287 632 405 97 4 1
VODI 0 0 370 657 860 719 49 1
ODI 0 0 21 213 785 1651 249 29
CDI 0 0 0 40 328 1585 1598 135
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 314 11268 10302
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102438 15857 5016 990 212 94 2 0
OW 0 183 1519 817 684 228 6 0
VODI 0 0 304 506 726 950 134 0
ODI 0 0 21 98 504 1143 492 40
CDI 0 0 0 55 449 1716 3841 161
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 310 8688 10261

Date: 2023-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101635 17212 3611 1150 138 45 11 8
OW 0 236 1128 1069 203 63 17 0
VODI 0 0 272 1194 673 463 64 0
ODI 0 0 21 408 965 1022 253 1
CDI 0 0 0 26 430 1238 2432 12
VCDI 0 0 0 3 159 420 9327 12711
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101569 17045 3581 1310 154 67 4 0
OW 0 388 1133 1351 305 124 11 0
VODI 0 0 259 926 640 640 148 0
ODI 0 0 29 197 611 911 469 0
CDI 0 0 1 62 652 1034 4361 374
VCDI 0 0 0 3 190 471 7099 12349

Date: 2023-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102410 17172 2754 1053 111 27 14 8
OW 0 534 897 1045 206 67 35 0
VODI 0 62 420 967 515 322 72 0
ODI 0 16 69 415 729 647 194 1
CDI 0 3 27 172 503 1016 1486 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 289 623 10356 13370
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102344 16764 2510 1026 157 58 7 0
OW 0 834 1032 760 149 99 32 0
VODI 0 127 501 1200 563 328 86 0
ODI 0 45 68 430 537 728 372 0
CDI 0 1 30 239 674 969 4342 531
VCDI 0 0 0 9 265 512 7300 12839


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