Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2023-09-14

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104091 17447 3570 1282 180 7 15 8
OW 0 347 1047 1422 760 139 96 0
VODI 0 51 277 1382 1586 801 546 0
ODI 0 6 44 202 561 1625 4361 3
CDI 0 0 6 71 89 316 6435 4362
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 63 2291 3118
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104807 16510 4062 986 192 6 9 8
OW 0 708 1252 1515 569 44 24 0
VODI 0 10 243 1515 1863 1181 257 0
ODI 0 1 3 193 641 2209 4083 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 53 123 4629 3746
VCDI 0 0 0 10 16 20 3012 4094
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104350 17618 2476 1057 200 7 6 8
OW 0 941 1038 1850 408 48 31 0
VODI 0 83 164 1656 1859 948 293 0
ODI 0 3 1 320 763 2062 4084 11
CDI 0 0 0 50 97 186 4243 3912
VCDI 0 0 0 8 12 28 3372 4427
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104281 17577 2400 1115 199 7 7 0
OW 0 965 1055 1776 397 59 24 0
VODI 0 87 192 1648 1852 899 251 0
ODI 0 4 2 325 738 2025 4385 114
CDI 0 0 0 48 126 257 4041 3761
VCDI 0 0 0 20 17 29 3310 4475

Date: 2023-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104542 16355 3078 1545 241 3 13 1
OW 0 381 734 2018 371 31 25 0
VODI 0 14 136 1372 1209 450 78 0
ODI 0 0 0 561 1248 919 403 0
CDI 0 11 0 345 543 1484 5112 2739
VCDI 0 15 1 14 82 339 7027 5180
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104476 16015 2666 1315 233 5 4 0
OW 0 697 1042 2397 544 116 26 0
VODI 0 21 208 1466 1472 999 173 0
ODI 0 2 2 466 1123 1732 2876 0
CDI 0 5 0 183 230 330 5168 2543
VCDI 0 21 1 17 83 42 4393 5376

Date: 2023-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103448 16926 3243 1614 283 7 14 1
OW 0 376 908 1553 592 107 2 0
VODI 0 17 112 607 1166 976 100 0
ODI 0 0 15 215 699 1454 325 0
CDI 0 0 0 93 327 1836 4331 1745
VCDI 0 0 0 17 107 739 8566 6099
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103382 16581 2624 1330 276 6 3 0
OW 0 690 1395 1811 757 319 16 0
VODI 0 33 226 723 1381 1576 147 0
ODI 0 0 3 169 561 2288 1924 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 98 890 6056 2383
VCDI 0 0 0 29 90 39 5173 5461

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101787 17896 3549 1449 378 42 14 1
OW 0 288 946 1372 809 124 8 0
VODI 0 1 145 647 1085 925 79 0
ODI 0 0 17 92 694 1290 349 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 410 2006 4167 645
VCDI 0 0 0 26 117 547 10330 6316
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101721 17459 3080 1071 398 46 3 0
OW 0 692 1332 1787 982 338 7 0
VODI 0 21 209 601 1213 1598 177 0
ODI 0 0 6 107 589 1981 1469 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 185 896 7097 2307
VCDI 0 0 0 37 117 74 6175 4654


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