Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-11-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99341 11183 358 426 103 7 0 0
OW 1359 845 295 548 145 33 1 0
VODI 2825 207 246 679 564 325 109 0
ODI 0 33 46 279 631 1315 385 0
CDI 0 5 13 86 541 1837 910 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 5891 30386 18760
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99031 10922 322 435 35 0 0 0
OW 1296 1047 326 490 178 6 0 0
VODI 2977 361 200 469 607 96 7 0
ODI 0 69 66 275 691 558 360 5
CDI 0 28 28 119 708 1372 1276 9
VCDI 0 3 7 44 185 4398 28996 22808
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98739 11144 373 504 77 0 0 0
OW 1270 1029 383 568 263 3 0 0
VODI 2992 106 156 548 563 63 0 0
ODI 0 11 32 254 687 254 15 0
CDI 0 5 8 70 774 1314 371 19
VCDI 0 2 3 15 187 6756 31577 19675
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96824 11333 499 683 99 0 0 0
OW 1240 939 274 777 587 46 0 0
VODI 3015 191 156 445 753 247 0 0
ODI 0 35 64 224 519 318 13 2
CDI 0 3 14 153 476 1150 239 32
VCDI 0 0 0 13 390 5230 27557 26270
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96823 11369 550 853 211 7 0 0
OW 1240 886 226 584 494 45 0 0
VODI 3016 199 143 442 710 225 0 0
ODI 0 43 67 237 465 321 6 2
CDI 0 4 21 165 528 1103 211 29
VCDI 0 0 0 14 416 5290 27592 26273

Date: 2025-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94237 11579 565 475 145 12 0 0
OW 1279 1450 400 974 500 174 0 0
VODI 3039 323 175 691 659 290 8 0
ODI 0 29 50 302 545 471 35 0
CDI 0 1 17 116 512 1186 424 10
VCDI 0 0 0 30 360 3934 28231 27582
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94218 11797 612 657 225 32 0 0
OW 1296 1272 359 767 452 148 0 0
VODI 3041 291 178 629 604 297 2 0
ODI 0 22 48 330 468 481 40 0
CDI 0 0 10 175 591 1109 410 8
VCDI 0 0 0 30 381 4000 28246 27584

Date: 2025-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92987 12005 424 691 257 25 0 0
OW 1242 1073 215 661 624 147 0 0
VODI 3064 563 180 443 788 336 29 0
ODI 0 85 80 286 642 347 56 0
CDI 0 18 22 192 848 838 214 33
VCDI 0 3 5 32 265 4204 26875 30011
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92972 11812 386 618 241 27 0 0
OW 1257 1181 214 702 643 122 0 0
VODI 3064 640 211 464 927 402 10 0
ODI 0 86 82 264 520 393 78 0
CDI 0 26 29 230 785 826 318 37
VCDI 0 2 4 27 308 4127 26768 30007

Date: 2025-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90105 12566 367 352 102 11 0 0
OW 1154 1529 298 465 322 66 0 0
VODI 3095 1115 312 889 808 194 3 0
ODI 0 59 64 346 964 721 12 0
CDI 0 1 7 115 564 2003 249 53
VCDI 0 0 1 22 132 4069 26433 31242
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90065 12315 349 436 208 47 0 0
OW 1197 1436 229 420 572 194 1 0
VODI 3092 1210 291 665 807 643 21 0
ODI 0 278 127 436 577 617 87 3
CDI 0 26 44 190 572 1603 423 37
VCDI 0 5 9 42 156 3960 26165 31255

Date: 2025-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available


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