Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2025-10-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88038 2965 30 22 0 0 0 0
OW 2030 303 79 88 33 0 0 0
VODI 1886 38 56 145 122 20 0 0
ODI 0 1 9 91 150 98 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 271 506 83 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 1091 4406 264
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88140 2788 21 16 1 0 0 0
OW 2037 337 72 83 47 0 0 0
VODI 1834 84 59 148 110 22 10 0
ODI 0 10 17 80 134 97 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 264 519 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1155 4422 221
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86525 4197 59 22 1 0 0 0
OW 1951 169 88 142 30 0 0 0
VODI 1935 15 22 138 186 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 16 155 96 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 110 659 124 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 709 5011 485
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87812 2991 30 24 0 0 0 0
OW 1921 201 52 105 30 0 0 0
VODI 1970 43 34 92 132 36 0 0
ODI 0 5 15 38 71 60 14 0
CDI 0 2 8 40 94 316 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 78 997 5260 340
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87811 2991 26 30 0 0 0 0
OW 1927 191 59 108 36 0 0 0
VODI 1965 53 34 83 134 38 0 0
ODI 0 6 13 37 62 71 15 0
CDI 0 1 7 43 107 305 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 66 995 5259 340

Date: 2025-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87873 2886 14 1 0 0 0 0
OW 1881 320 48 67 15 0 0 0
VODI 2023 102 39 100 108 1 0 0
ODI 0 33 16 44 77 57 18 0
CDI 0 18 15 57 107 363 195 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 31 2578 3286 488
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87876 2894 17 1 0 0 0 0
OW 1893 302 42 71 23 0 0 0
VODI 2008 111 43 100 102 4 0 0
ODI 0 33 12 41 80 59 17 0
CDI 0 19 18 57 106 383 179 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 2553 3303 488

Date: 2025-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87774 2969 19 9 3 0 0 0
OW 1769 437 80 63 8 0 0 0
VODI 2208 22 41 118 94 1 0 0
ODI 0 3 7 49 124 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 148 628 96 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 2146 3800 184
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87776 2862 15 2 0 0 0 0
OW 1790 350 34 53 18 0 0 0
VODI 2185 162 47 65 96 0 0 0
ODI 0 40 28 55 75 31 2 0
CDI 0 17 23 82 189 428 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 2350 3799 184

Date: 2025-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87883 3109 17 11 0 0 0 0
OW 1809 460 43 36 8 0 0 0
VODI 2111 108 30 60 42 2 0 0
ODI 0 33 46 63 52 12 0 0
CDI 0 8 17 117 323 441 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 165 2961 2836 38
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87889 2898 14 6 0 0 0 0
OW 1825 399 21 25 13 0 0 0
VODI 2089 235 35 59 35 5 0 0
ODI 0 108 23 46 34 16 0 0
CDI 0 78 59 148 279 218 56 0
VCDI 0 0 1 5 229 3177 2799 38

Date: 2025-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87592 3241 22 24 4 0 0 0
OW 1729 385 53 52 17 2 0 0
VODI 2256 136 31 85 47 17 0 0
ODI 0 80 18 57 69 41 5 0
CDI 0 47 53 132 246 403 295 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 29 2117 3576 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87658 3073 27 13 1 0 0 0
OW 1814 408 23 56 20 3 0 0
VODI 2105 248 49 52 34 17 1 0
ODI 0 85 25 59 42 32 2 0
CDI 0 75 53 171 241 257 161 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 74 2271 3712 0


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