Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2025-10-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11295 5186 82 25 0 0 0 0
OW 1 333 180 397 155 31 0 0
VODI 0 21 36 178 442 249 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 291 465 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 195 846 541 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 715 7672 2652
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11245 4919 29 14 0 0 0 0
OW 1 670 158 209 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 87 293 414 181 28 0
ODI 0 17 14 76 275 290 127 0
CDI 0 0 3 28 272 708 417 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 1164 8665 1606
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11157 5609 41 8 0 0 0 0
OW 1 559 235 188 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 85 374 213 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 94 360 107 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 303 978 118 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 2339 8778 432
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9779 6945 91 52 1 0 0 0
OW 1 404 208 285 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 65 317 285 51 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 72 250 226 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 189 922 177 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1650 7197 2794
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9779 6948 129 74 9 0 0 0
OW 1 374 182 300 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 52 279 290 71 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 71 231 211 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 182 835 157 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 1732 7219 2794

Date: 2025-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9491 6571 80 40 2 0 0 0
OW 1 750 190 275 50 1 0 0
VODI 0 112 101 349 286 64 0 0
ODI 0 2 12 129 191 258 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 224 649 287 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 37 2069 9021 775
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9491 6693 112 73 11 0 0 0
OW 1 581 160 274 64 5 0 0
VODI 0 158 98 313 282 73 0 0
ODI 0 3 13 120 168 218 24 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 205 575 213 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 60 2170 9090 775

Date: 2025-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9033 6312 279 238 10 0 0 0
OW 1 652 279 284 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 60 498 215 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 535 68 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 250 1199 144 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2850 8908 146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9027 6032 302 287 22 0 0 0
OW 7 685 188 265 88 4 0 0
VODI 0 221 94 352 345 65 2 0
ODI 0 28 25 138 275 217 20 0
CDI 0 2 9 45 239 547 173 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 59 3288 8884 146

Date: 2025-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9658 5713 81 53 0 0 0 0
OW 3 806 93 216 55 1 0 0
VODI 0 205 144 268 230 26 0 0
ODI 0 37 33 162 422 95 6 0
CDI 0 13 28 76 503 882 139 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 72 5125 6846 87
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9638 5177 83 67 5 0 0 0
OW 23 898 68 185 52 20 0 0
VODI 0 506 113 238 292 67 16 0
ODI 0 132 64 153 323 106 24 0
CDI 0 55 44 119 428 626 133 0
VCDI 0 6 7 17 182 5310 6818 87

Date: 2025-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10099 5102 47 48 4 0 0 0
OW 35 765 123 248 62 0 0 0
VODI 2 259 100 300 305 15 0 0
ODI 0 110 19 90 341 181 24 0
CDI 0 145 48 115 370 961 489 0
VCDI 0 1 7 31 68 4617 6537 414
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10082 4416 28 24 5 0 0 0
OW 49 836 86 167 58 5 0 0
VODI 5 687 90 273 276 30 29 0
ODI 0 245 65 148 209 134 36 0
CDI 0 125 58 158 382 560 347 0
VCDI 0 73 17 62 220 5045 6638 414


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