Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-09-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117089 14337 193 110 2 0 0 0
OW 2327 3115 755 831 99 11 0 0
VODI 1517 348 375 2052 1445 220 0 0
ODI 0 53 31 328 1422 2336 128 0
CDI 0 22 30 163 1069 8606 3193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 82 6092 10608 1819
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117869 13096 200 121 12 0 0 0
OW 2258 3165 584 820 212 17 0 0
VODI 1569 398 308 1553 1643 398 0 0
ODI 0 78 39 343 1351 2295 144 0
CDI 0 36 22 149 755 5367 3008 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 29 4684 15683 2595
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117637 14111 163 84 6 0 0 0
OW 2242 2127 614 810 194 4 0 0
VODI 1668 293 190 1275 1407 264 2 0
ODI 0 45 32 352 1269 1568 279 0
CDI 0 35 20 101 906 4041 2272 0
VCDI 0 0 3 11 45 2682 18835 5223
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116762 14053 169 89 14 0 0 0
OW 2123 2370 550 896 263 9 0 0
VODI 1853 267 230 961 1409 362 16 0
ODI 0 25 32 291 1112 1518 157 0
CDI 0 10 13 148 866 3845 1873 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 64 2698 20021 5737
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116774 14295 252 187 28 0 0 0
OW 2112 2095 420 725 312 14 0 0
VODI 1852 301 275 1005 1341 358 19 0
ODI 0 24 33 315 1153 1557 183 0
CDI 0 10 14 147 822 3878 1991 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 72 2625 19874 5737

Date: 2025-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115787 13917 137 99 0 0 0 0
OW 2070 2935 534 673 286 36 0 0
VODI 1794 340 228 736 1068 650 131 0
ODI 0 33 56 319 682 1176 489 0
CDI 0 3 8 90 699 2635 2926 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 42 2933 19618 7679
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115787 14341 191 172 20 3 0 0
OW 2077 2473 452 561 311 75 16 0
VODI 1787 378 262 775 987 665 139 0
ODI 0 30 47 312 732 1174 561 0
CDI 0 6 11 97 694 2641 2885 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 33 2872 19563 7679

Date: 2025-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114530 14757 203 107 18 0 0 0
OW 1966 1976 741 755 104 0 0 0
VODI 1910 54 153 1579 615 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 288 1415 237 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 885 3774 209 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 3603 26528 4363
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114532 13607 261 292 45 8 0 0
OW 2015 2381 445 875 433 93 28 0
VODI 1859 719 311 1012 912 650 152 0
ODI 0 77 71 390 736 804 504 0
CDI 0 3 9 161 847 2542 1750 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 82 3529 24307 4363

Date: 2025-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114387 14103 260 137 1 0 0 0
OW 1943 1951 708 916 127 1 0 0
VODI 1948 170 229 1106 861 74 0 0
ODI 0 6 24 369 1036 486 7 0
CDI 0 3 7 48 875 2601 288 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 170 5324 20924 9720
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114401 12893 318 283 33 18 2 0
OW 1974 2405 510 836 568 145 16 0
VODI 1903 752 274 872 1069 778 114 0
ODI 0 129 73 295 561 1205 443 0
CDI 0 52 44 256 498 2006 1747 0
VCDI 0 2 9 34 341 4334 18897 9720

Date: 2025-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112575 14297 342 322 18 2 0 0
OW 1905 1966 613 1022 337 32 0 0
VODI 1991 393 253 1089 1001 230 1 0
ODI 0 54 32 230 774 688 49 0
CDI 0 13 28 91 426 2521 632 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 216 5952 19504 11203
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112581 13608 460 597 376 136 47 0
OW 1947 2063 372 737 486 436 148 0
VODI 1943 827 264 602 510 601 489 0
ODI 0 197 117 502 619 916 746 0
CDI 0 28 52 241 448 1483 1616 12
VCDI 0 0 3 83 333 5853 17140 11191


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