Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2025-09-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15467 6591 40 23 0 0 0 0
OW 26 2652 529 405 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 225 365 2076 589 32 0 0
ODI 0 16 12 530 4081 922 0 0
CDI 0 7 3 11 722 6610 641 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 2009 1268 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15803 6113 49 17 0 0 0 0
OW 35 2853 494 340 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 338 407 2023 532 35 1 0
ODI 0 19 23 660 3751 946 0 0
CDI 0 7 7 51 681 6216 1085 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 20 2522 824 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15357 7583 97 38 0 0 0 0
OW 53 1989 741 580 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 127 2333 474 4 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 487 2571 182 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 27 1756 7309 830 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 6 1426 1850 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15356 6556 77 19 0 0 0 0
OW 152 2743 572 482 70 1 0 0
VODI 7 147 237 2086 583 68 1 0
ODI 0 7 8 710 2392 303 16 0
CDI 0 2 4 46 1934 4088 431 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 4095 2671 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15361 6594 92 19 0 0 0 0
OW 149 2685 567 494 62 0 0 0
VODI 5 165 227 2159 709 66 1 0
ODI 0 10 8 626 2412 331 14 0
CDI 0 1 4 44 1793 4241 537 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 5 3917 2567 0

Date: 2025-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16371 5349 41 15 0 0 0 0
OW 401 2800 437 288 37 2 0 0
VODI 0 250 277 2011 685 42 2 0
ODI 0 6 7 631 2508 459 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 1473 3816 296 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 3621 4012 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16342 5204 41 15 0 0 0 0
OW 430 2952 451 302 22 1 0 0
VODI 0 240 263 2125 834 54 0 0
ODI 0 9 6 494 2558 490 2 0
CDI 0 0 1 35 1290 3840 355 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 3555 3954 0

Date: 2025-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17533 6063 57 22 3 0 0 0
OW 37 1860 615 363 16 3 0 0
VODI 0 16 49 1933 426 5 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 217 2525 218 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 763 4171 210 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 2445 6309 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17095 4587 62 34 3 0 0 0
OW 475 2888 327 309 43 8 0 0
VODI 0 452 308 1589 767 267 2 0
ODI 0 11 24 586 1971 558 18 0
CDI 0 2 0 18 935 3029 469 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 2980 6030 0

Date: 2025-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17408 6287 118 55 2 0 0 0
OW 42 1580 496 592 77 30 0 0
VODI 0 67 152 1415 776 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 307 1979 393 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 1127 3601 139 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 60 1850 7248 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16970 4770 96 41 3 0 0 0
OW 480 2787 329 448 58 11 0 0
VODI 0 368 330 1411 929 93 2 0
ODI 0 9 14 482 2134 707 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 877 2571 356 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 2496 7025 1

Date: 2025-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17442 6211 78 42 2 0 0 0
OW 27 1765 478 482 17 2 0 0
VODI 0 157 178 1006 832 89 0 0
ODI 0 24 13 136 677 1763 109 0
CDI 0 17 23 80 529 3133 787 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 2090 6170 1459
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16837 4642 74 40 3 0 0 0
OW 632 2839 332 363 20 1 0 0
VODI 0 618 309 1024 705 222 4 0
ODI 0 50 30 234 970 2100 360 0
CDI 0 23 25 83 354 2830 571 0
VCDI 0 2 0 2 53 1924 6131 1459


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