Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-09-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115719 13635 92 39 7 0 0 0
OW 2736 4936 977 669 39 0 0 0
VODI 1026 471 777 4242 1278 41 0 0
ODI 0 16 16 1241 10652 3208 2 0
CDI 0 7 3 18 1718 11436 824 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 2519 2451 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116158 12952 71 22 4 0 0 0
OW 2716 5084 848 655 35 0 0 0
VODI 1066 671 841 4138 1281 69 1 0
ODI 0 19 24 1364 9321 3172 5 0
CDI 0 7 7 55 2049 11783 1224 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 34 2938 2186 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115792 14902 117 41 1 0 0 0
OW 2664 3776 1296 889 45 0 0 0
VODI 1148 75 341 4591 1106 5 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 942 6482 900 4 0
CDI 0 0 3 29 3782 15853 959 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 11 1936 3109 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115679 13780 89 26 0 0 0 0
OW 2669 4553 972 905 121 1 0 0
VODI 1264 312 532 4119 1413 90 1 0
ODI 0 7 10 998 4657 1126 16 0
CDI 0 2 4 47 3018 13573 1370 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 5117 4315 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115684 14034 123 29 0 0 0 0
OW 2669 4283 968 958 128 0 0 0
VODI 1259 326 497 4072 1488 89 1 0
ODI 0 10 15 989 4687 1184 16 0
CDI 0 1 4 46 2896 13925 1529 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 34 4709 4156 0

Date: 2025-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115034 13836 126 43 0 0 0 0
OW 2857 4628 764 762 137 5 0 0
VODI 1339 489 538 3815 1686 129 2 0
ODI 0 7 10 871 4023 1512 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 2419 11575 1202 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 6032 6921 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115011 13913 135 53 0 0 0 0
OW 2889 4569 776 785 129 3 0 0
VODI 1330 466 506 3859 1754 136 0 0
ODI 0 12 20 782 4161 1609 12 0
CDI 0 0 1 42 2225 11596 1390 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 5909 6735 0

Date: 2025-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117607 13900 91 34 3 0 0 0
OW 2394 3133 1133 745 32 3 0 0
VODI 1443 28 146 3478 945 6 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 382 3893 384 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1638 13805 662 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 4469 10428 4
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117171 12019 116 79 3 0 0 0
OW 2881 4351 689 912 251 30 0 0
VODI 1392 674 525 2839 1791 498 17 0
ODI 0 16 40 790 3032 1814 68 0
CDI 0 2 0 22 1406 10524 1335 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 5801 9670 4

Date: 2025-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117623 13961 211 69 2 0 0 0
OW 2374 2936 855 950 139 30 0 0
VODI 1479 189 318 2714 1349 29 0 0
ODI 0 14 24 523 3028 722 7 0
CDI 0 0 3 83 1617 11353 874 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 130 4603 12299 300
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117249 12137 240 122 3 0 0 0
OW 2910 4276 607 1003 387 21 0 0
VODI 1317 650 525 2418 1859 380 3 0
ODI 0 37 38 756 2939 1857 75 0
CDI 0 0 1 42 1038 8952 1443 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 5527 11659 300

Date: 2025-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117089 14337 193 110 2 0 0 0
OW 2327 3115 755 831 99 11 0 0
VODI 1517 348 375 2052 1445 220 0 0
ODI 0 53 31 328 1422 2336 128 0
CDI 0 22 30 163 1069 8606 3193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 82 6092 10608 1819
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116546 12278 231 256 84 2 0 0
OW 3023 4526 566 796 313 78 0 0
VODI 1364 984 504 1920 1511 577 19 0
ODI 0 62 58 427 1599 3172 536 0
CDI 0 23 25 85 545 7034 2512 0
VCDI 0 2 0 2 67 6402 10862 1819


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