Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-08-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99390 15621 174 64 5 0 0 0
OW 2000 4671 1164 1045 66 0 0 0
VODI 1950 643 898 5060 1490 23 1 0
ODI 0 59 45 998 8801 6939 185 0
CDI 0 65 37 137 5011 16176 3348 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 56 2363 2323 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101313 13609 166 57 6 0 0 0
OW 2139 5112 1115 982 61 0 0 0
VODI 1919 1095 1035 5259 1564 15 1 0
ODI 0 91 58 1426 8043 7501 333 0
CDI 0 94 30 189 4433 14338 4450 202
VCDI 0 1 6 15 141 1089 2701 221
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103509 13760 201 90 6 1 0 0
OW 2232 4743 1488 1223 65 0 0 0
VODI 1899 192 490 5203 1912 84 0 0
ODI 0 8 13 585 8477 1761 15 0
CDI 0 5 10 45 4380 17889 2970 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 6 1305 5523 716
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102763 14945 191 109 6 0 0 0
OW 2074 5013 1226 1155 128 2 0 0
VODI 1869 522 653 4840 1897 88 0 0
ODI 0 18 43 858 7594 2526 51 0
CDI 0 7 7 137 5036 16960 4347 0
VCDI 0 2 3 3 6 677 3909 1145
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102728 15448 273 172 15 0 0 0
OW 2109 4495 1187 1266 143 2 0 0
VODI 1869 525 602 4569 2012 106 0 0
ODI 0 30 44 934 7396 2627 45 0
CDI 0 7 14 158 5095 16612 4135 0
VCDI 0 2 3 3 6 906 4127 1145

Date: 2025-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104353 13763 163 71 5 0 0 0
OW 2187 5277 1048 977 78 4 0 0
VODI 1832 1003 952 4714 1727 65 0 0
ODI 0 61 62 1177 7908 2638 80 0
CDI 0 6 23 181 5109 15474 4495 3
VCDI 0 3 4 3 21 596 3715 1032
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104324 14281 254 132 8 0 0 0
OW 2216 4839 1013 1086 100 10 0 0
VODI 1832 911 892 4468 1790 77 0 0
ODI 0 72 65 1250 7336 2628 58 0
CDI 0 7 24 184 5593 15277 4196 3
VCDI 0 3 4 3 21 785 4036 1032

Date: 2025-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105189 15214 209 69 8 0 0 0
OW 2334 4746 1716 994 23 0 0 0
VODI 1739 33 264 5707 1290 20 1 0
ODI 0 2 4 462 11672 1229 0 0
CDI 0 1 6 11 2399 17722 377 0
VCDI 0 4 2 1 21 1192 6109 40
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105046 13630 246 100 16 2 0 0
OW 2421 5185 940 963 97 24 0 0
VODI 1795 1089 910 4724 1674 117 9 0
ODI 0 88 83 1254 7382 2396 65 0
CDI 0 3 17 200 6209 15507 2627 0
VCDI 0 5 5 3 35 2117 3786 40

Date: 2025-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106313 14420 205 71 5 0 0 0
OW 2470 5066 1292 890 44 2 0 0
VODI 1707 409 811 5240 1045 36 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 981 10755 1665 1 0
CDI 0 2 3 14 4880 13843 1929 0
VCDI 0 4 1 2 50 1530 4552 566
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106098 12778 240 106 15 0 0 0
OW 2612 5389 852 977 99 23 0 0
VODI 1780 1641 1098 4354 1270 205 0 0
ODI 0 87 104 1488 7090 2142 30 0
CDI 0 3 18 267 8263 13203 2860 0
VCDI 0 6 3 6 42 1503 3592 566

Date: 2025-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108185 12709 135 60 5 0 0 0
OW 2728 5607 928 564 46 9 0 0
VODI 1539 700 1110 5296 931 29 0 0
ODI 0 10 17 1266 11035 1406 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 36 3928 14157 1599 0
VCDI 0 4 1 3 50 1728 4672 313
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107882 10952 177 147 31 0 0 0
OW 2810 5913 718 665 143 6 0 0
VODI 1760 2004 1163 4508 1223 161 0 0
ODI 0 153 108 1555 6899 1763 34 0
CDI 0 4 24 344 7621 13982 2299 8
VCDI 0 7 2 6 78 1417 3938 305


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