Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-07-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95598 14941 174 51 11 0 0 0
OW 1925 5201 1192 1326 108 2 0 0
VODI 2295 658 674 4026 2245 51 0 0
ODI 0 26 36 684 7950 2427 9 0
CDI 0 62 33 83 8130 24937 266 0
VCDI 0 6 18 96 979 4392 198 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96677 15115 155 79 4 0 0 0
OW 2027 5056 1072 1315 127 2 0 0
VODI 2261 852 713 4138 2036 90 0 0
ODI 0 63 51 1016 7433 2135 31 0
CDI 0 88 42 108 8797 21618 891 0
VCDI 0 27 13 100 656 5400 622 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98436 16422 270 80 5 0 0 0
OW 1964 4114 1441 1230 49 3 0 0
VODI 2008 135 419 4813 1550 7 0 0
ODI 0 44 22 786 11606 1945 8 0
CDI 0 41 31 93 5121 23408 671 0
VCDI 0 2 1 10 119 2697 1259 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99307 15780 191 58 4 0 0 0
OW 1987 4397 1196 1122 62 3 0 0
VODI 1972 387 679 4426 2194 18 1 0
ODI 0 55 26 655 10967 4286 1 0
CDI 0 41 34 119 5416 19816 1266 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 172 3509 660 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99305 15919 207 67 3 0 0 0
OW 1987 4218 1159 1252 79 3 0 0
VODI 1974 428 705 4290 2175 26 1 0
ODI 0 52 16 641 10659 4389 7 0
CDI 0 43 39 130 5739 19633 1263 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 160 3581 657 0

Date: 2025-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98525 16418 192 65 3 0 0 0
OW 2146 4803 1207 993 54 0 0 0
VODI 1927 786 949 4960 1784 97 0 0
ODI 0 79 58 1455 7301 7826 425 0
CDI 0 86 39 174 4373 14404 4974 125
VCDI 0 1 0 0 156 1765 2660 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98529 16636 218 79 3 0 0 0
OW 2139 4555 1247 1149 54 0 0 0
VODI 1930 815 887 4640 2003 143 1 0
ODI 0 75 48 1597 6977 7169 674 0
CDI 0 91 45 182 4490 14844 4640 124
VCDI 0 1 0 0 144 1936 2744 1

Date: 2025-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101883 15204 166 74 10 0 0 0
OW 2062 4868 1721 1152 32 0 0 0
VODI 1917 88 230 6124 1317 2 0 0
ODI 0 10 9 529 9918 800 0 0
CDI 0 7 10 47 3116 20617 471 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1321 6588 506
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101816 13336 161 93 7 0 0 0
OW 2148 5187 979 1131 48 0 0 0
VODI 1898 1424 893 5009 1896 127 0 0
ODI 0 128 65 1418 6994 7708 418 0
CDI 0 96 29 253 5371 14336 3798 367
VCDI 0 6 9 22 88 569 2843 139

Date: 2025-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103031 14357 197 129 19 1 0 0
OW 2208 4782 1313 1271 90 1 0 0
VODI 1883 400 511 5137 1799 72 5 0
ODI 0 11 27 737 7772 2046 609 0
CDI 0 6 6 77 4728 17494 3395 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 8 1419 4861 403
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102892 12411 201 158 21 1 0 0
OW 2380 5210 911 1134 116 0 0 0
VODI 1850 1669 769 4572 2230 343 49 0
ODI 0 183 129 1173 6344 8028 798 0
CDI 0 80 41 296 5655 12252 6265 209
VCDI 0 3 4 22 50 409 1758 194

Date: 2025-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103997 13960 188 95 10 0 0 0
OW 2206 5125 1030 1025 118 3 0 0
VODI 1845 820 852 4599 1731 250 0 0
ODI 0 35 54 1045 8010 2053 116 0
CDI 0 4 16 144 4472 17068 4590 0
VCDI 0 1 4 4 15 170 3555 1600
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103824 11823 185 108 7 0 0 0
OW 2409 5511 802 1120 160 2 0 0
VODI 1815 2235 959 4016 2311 319 0 0
ODI 0 268 142 1267 5895 7643 1206 0
CDI 0 106 49 383 5958 11478 6063 1033
VCDI 0 2 7 18 25 102 992 567


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