Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2025-07-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6260 4613 63 25 0 0 0 0
OW 50 1435 205 284 29 1 0 0
VODI 1 209 172 835 723 44 4 0
ODI 0 18 27 176 2361 1670 1 0
CDI 0 0 4 79 4729 14976 703 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 599 2967 2593 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6827 4340 36 31 3 2 0 0
OW 33 1463 178 278 41 10 4 0
VODI 3 269 153 783 708 91 11 0
ODI 0 40 42 241 2471 1055 70 0
CDI 0 27 6 47 3599 16879 2082 0
VCDI 0 3 2 15 634 1880 1509 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7044 5054 32 38 2 2 0 0
OW 18 1086 338 352 21 7 0 0
VODI 0 55 105 1146 612 17 0 0
ODI 0 4 4 158 4844 556 0 0
CDI 0 4 8 26 4597 14197 1154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 464 2224 1692 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7813 4623 24 16 5 6 0 0
OW 4 1103 265 336 30 5 0 0
VODI 0 102 154 1226 703 23 0 0
ODI 0 8 9 178 4685 682 0 0
CDI 0 20 6 52 4007 14042 1547 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 551 2168 1433 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7811 4594 27 14 6 6 0 0
OW 6 1117 253 347 31 9 0 0
VODI 0 115 160 1196 756 23 0 0
ODI 0 10 11 190 4609 725 0 0
CDI 0 20 6 59 4030 14121 1579 0
VCDI 0 0 1 42 549 2042 1401 0

Date: 2025-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8519 4302 18 17 1 0 0 0
OW 40 1075 250 321 32 2 0 0
VODI 1 133 168 1218 1087 23 0 0
ODI 0 21 11 173 3438 807 1 0
CDI 0 23 10 55 3030 17085 592 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 443 2815 107 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8512 4294 21 31 7 0 0 0
OW 45 1060 253 356 32 4 0 0
VODI 3 155 163 1151 1080 19 0 0
ODI 0 23 6 175 3554 1215 2 0
CDI 0 22 13 71 2913 16663 568 0
VCDI 0 0 1 48 445 2831 130 0

Date: 2025-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8920 4859 43 23 0 0 0 0
OW 11 804 439 369 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 37 1533 752 5 0 0
ODI 0 15 8 97 6669 424 0 0
CDI 0 16 18 115 1483 15653 396 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 247 1129 1755 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8875 4390 36 31 1 0 0 0
OW 56 1053 256 415 42 2 0 0
VODI 0 187 199 1289 1184 60 0 0
ODI 0 41 12 239 3490 609 0 0
CDI 0 35 27 74 4036 13975 1185 0
VCDI 0 8 15 103 410 2565 966 0

Date: 2025-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10008 3995 72 15 0 0 0 0
OW 24 812 415 456 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 67 1761 773 7 0 0
ODI 0 14 6 171 5803 591 0 0
CDI 0 36 25 94 3312 12279 452 0
VCDI 0 0 3 29 373 3063 1129 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9899 3524 31 21 10 0 0 0
OW 132 995 301 459 38 6 0 0
VODI 1 267 194 1560 1117 31 0 0
ODI 0 63 22 321 3822 406 0 0
CDI 0 41 21 60 4771 11611 645 0
VCDI 0 23 19 105 528 3886 936 0

Date: 2025-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10607 3634 85 37 1 0 0 0
OW 14 860 346 524 39 1 0 0
VODI 0 109 89 1576 1078 25 0 0
ODI 0 19 5 129 4210 1493 0 0
CDI 0 62 33 61 4600 11813 50 0
VCDI 0 6 18 96 977 3088 181 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10502 3134 63 39 19 2 0 0
OW 117 1038 284 463 71 5 0 0
VODI 2 327 144 1393 1118 178 0 0
ODI 0 78 27 323 2507 1710 0 0
CDI 0 46 13 80 6213 10218 17 0
VCDI 0 67 45 125 977 4307 214 0


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