Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-07-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84554 17569 224 186 22 0 0 0
OW 1419 4265 760 838 132 10 0 0
VODI 2813 999 740 2977 1610 78 6 0
ODI 0 123 153 1076 4870 2196 18 0
CDI 0 66 51 317 9560 24754 1154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 795 12637 3828 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85716 16418 116 98 25 2 0 0
OW 1462 4696 743 877 155 23 5 0
VODI 2785 1483 835 2824 1624 151 19 0
ODI 0 256 211 1407 4899 1576 133 0
CDI 0 117 63 369 7754 29160 2353 0
VCDI 0 3 2 20 817 10020 1593 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87903 16398 137 90 14 3 0 0
OW 1616 4780 1279 1122 89 15 0 0
VODI 2536 294 692 3954 1522 41 0 0
ODI 0 8 23 746 9037 1161 3 0
CDI 0 4 8 78 6624 33130 1488 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 474 3642 1894 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87668 17030 139 99 9 6 0 0
OW 1605 5031 1119 1138 106 9 0 0
VODI 2513 702 904 3807 1577 54 0 0
ODI 0 31 79 1056 8536 1026 14 0
CDI 0 20 9 141 6662 32311 2195 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 551 3046 1577 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87659 17425 162 108 8 6 0 0
OW 1613 4633 1087 1157 113 12 0 0
VODI 2514 699 898 3722 1614 55 1 0
ODI 0 37 92 1086 8433 1305 14 0
CDI 0 20 10 166 6724 32048 2189 0
VCDI 0 0 1 42 549 3026 1582 0

Date: 2025-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90305 15065 138 57 4 0 0 0
OW 1739 5342 1076 1044 102 9 0 0
VODI 2481 1154 939 3500 1872 87 4 0
ODI 0 112 147 1247 6809 1120 18 0
CDI 0 25 22 160 7768 32538 2018 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 443 3252 165 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90298 15396 155 77 11 0 0 0
OW 1740 4964 1051 1081 99 12 0 0
VODI 2487 1169 922 3349 1929 79 7 0
ODI 0 143 165 1307 6917 1735 27 0
CDI 0 26 28 194 7597 31938 1936 0
VCDI 0 0 1 48 445 3242 235 0

Date: 2025-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91393 17250 183 82 9 0 0 0
OW 1717 5013 1787 1270 53 0 0 0
VODI 2359 61 319 4354 1967 15 0 0
ODI 0 15 8 338 11581 1055 0 0
CDI 0 16 18 115 3638 31155 583 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 247 1377 2818 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91250 15372 135 80 13 0 0 0
OW 1772 5402 1032 1117 144 13 0 0
VODI 2447 1310 895 3396 2103 133 0 0
ODI 0 224 194 1288 6273 1415 42 0
CDI 0 39 44 189 8552 29395 2380 0
VCDI 0 8 15 103 410 2646 979 0

Date: 2025-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93718 15665 197 68 7 0 0 0
OW 1914 5003 1490 1329 105 0 0 0
VODI 2330 264 526 4549 1893 25 0 0
ODI 0 17 14 577 10297 1110 10 0
CDI 0 36 25 103 8731 24181 648 0
VCDI 0 0 3 29 373 4133 1440 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93347 13561 127 73 20 0 0 0
OW 2194 5655 975 1160 145 9 0 0
VODI 2421 1386 899 3700 1994 95 3 0
ODI 0 308 198 1391 6674 1222 75 0
CDI 0 52 37 226 12045 23912 1054 0
VCDI 0 23 19 105 528 4211 966 0

Date: 2025-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95598 14941 174 51 11 0 0 0
OW 1925 5201 1192 1326 108 2 0 0
VODI 2295 658 674 4026 2245 51 0 0
ODI 0 26 36 684 7950 2427 9 0
CDI 0 62 33 83 8130 24937 266 0
VCDI 0 6 18 96 979 4392 198 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95245 12447 152 91 41 2 0 0
OW 2185 5809 881 1156 221 6 0 0
VODI 2388 1968 745 3105 1968 271 14 0
ODI 0 516 264 1498 5043 2622 67 0
CDI 0 87 40 291 10772 24087 178 0
VCDI 0 67 45 125 1378 4821 214 0


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