Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2025-07-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1336 4286 41 50 8 0 0 0
OW 41 1470 222 218 21 1 0 0
VODI 0 672 215 898 548 36 11 0
ODI 0 89 75 1293 1355 438 25 0
CDI 0 30 15 243 1552 6260 241 0
VCDI 0 0 1 43 1444 15033 5425 2230
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2046 4006 40 29 3 0 0 0
OW 53 1474 244 225 79 8 3 0
VODI 1 761 290 1333 502 89 8 0
ODI 0 208 141 1202 832 528 60 0
CDI 0 39 19 207 1902 5432 204 0
VCDI 0 0 1 5 2008 16269 4841 774
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2839 4161 49 35 3 0 0 0
OW 11 2007 585 712 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 173 211 1796 638 17 2 0
ODI 0 14 8 191 1963 332 8 0
CDI 0 6 4 50 3402 7394 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 1021 11592 4461 2058
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3095 4194 75 41 4 0 0 0
OW 50 2547 567 732 66 0 0 0
VODI 1 363 209 1011 626 22 0 0
ODI 0 23 20 323 2123 275 10 0
CDI 0 4 11 72 3568 6088 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 1377 12053 6117 132
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3072 4207 77 36 3 0 0 0
OW 74 2511 552 679 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 383 217 1054 604 22 0 0
ODI 0 25 26 333 2157 293 10 0
CDI 0 5 10 77 3543 5705 79 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 1405 12418 6103 132

Date: 2025-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1252 6373 185 140 5 0 0 0
OW 17 3024 533 582 100 0 0 0
VODI 14 254 158 742 569 67 1 0
ODI 0 54 44 328 2013 382 13 0
CDI 0 5 13 101 3404 4634 49 0
VCDI 0 0 2 11 3383 13485 3840 89
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1249 6359 185 145 7 0 0 0
OW 23 2998 510 564 93 1 0 0
VODI 11 286 174 699 537 65 1 0
ODI 0 62 45 379 2075 395 12 0
CDI 0 5 19 105 3440 4511 53 0
VCDI 0 0 2 12 3322 13596 3837 89

Date: 2025-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3948 6662 74 51 3 0 0 0
OW 14 1265 447 387 36 1 0 0
VODI 0 30 80 1166 496 4 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 110 3926 438 4 0
CDI 0 0 2 11 3862 12613 99 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 598 6325 3210 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3933 5094 50 33 3 0 0 0
OW 29 2425 258 498 155 4 1 0
VODI 0 366 225 627 437 42 4 0
ODI 0 58 54 459 1920 390 23 0
CDI 0 15 17 102 3850 5260 116 0
VCDI 0 0 1 7 2556 13685 3169 0

Date: 2025-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5925 5028 48 32 1 0 0 0
OW 62 1200 284 279 47 0 0 0
VODI 5 169 179 940 610 20 0 0
ODI 0 4 14 144 2930 1288 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 75 2814 15621 218 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 671 4305 2936 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5504 4105 39 26 1 0 0 0
OW 478 1713 153 357 157 7 0 0
VODI 10 493 251 562 428 42 0 0
ODI 0 74 64 356 1716 590 4 0
CDI 0 16 18 151 2585 9561 333 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 2186 11034 2825 0

Date: 2025-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6260 4613 63 25 0 0 0 0
OW 50 1435 205 284 29 1 0 0
VODI 1 209 172 835 723 44 4 0
ODI 0 18 27 176 2361 1670 1 0
CDI 0 0 4 79 4729 14976 703 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 599 2967 2593 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5924 3906 54 21 1 0 0 0
OW 381 1676 154 346 77 11 0 0
VODI 6 574 188 605 501 52 0 0
ODI 0 89 49 296 1419 765 15 0
CDI 0 30 24 126 4945 12059 478 0
VCDI 0 0 2 15 1498 6771 2808 0


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